More reforms, low interest rates and greater availability of funds are needed to push India’s economy to higher growth trajectory of over 8 per cent, Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Thursday. India grew by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 6.7 per cent in 2017-18.
Rajiv Kumar, VC, Niti Aayog; Sanjeev Sanyal, Principal Economic Adviser, FinMin
New Delhi:
“The cost of capital cannot be equal to rate of returns, it (rate of returns) must be higher than cost of capital in the long run. So, this is where I think we need to have a very good look.
“...Otherwise, I am afraid despite the promise, growth rates may not be sustained,” Kumar noted. He also expressed displeasure at politicisation of release of back-series GDP data Wednesday at a joint press conference addressed by him and Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava.
Kumar said “I am deeply pained at people who politicised it for no reason at all.” The vice-chairman also pointed out that the Centre needs to invest more in the country’s statistical system. Noting that invest climate and capacity utilisations are improving, Kumar said, “Domestic investments is going to drive the Indian economy.” He also stressed on need of improving competitiveness of India’s production units by the government and industry working together.
“We have not done enough to modernise our agriculture,” he noted.
Growth ‘pretty decent’ despite macro instability: Adviser
“From time to time GDP series is revised. You take a base year and then calculate it. This reflects that the structure of the economy changes from time to time. We have taken 2011-12 as base year and we have calculated and now we have created a back series as well.
“The further you go away from the base period, you can go back to 1950 also, it will give worse reflection of time that is why it was decided, for whatever reason you can ask the CSO, that 2004-05 was a good period from where you can create a back series,” he said
The revised numbers show economic growth rate averaged 6.7 pc during the Congress-led UPA regime against 7.3 pc under the present government.
“Breaching the 8 per cent growth ceiling is not easy, we have to try much harder and undertake the reforms at the level where it matters,” he said at an event here. Kumar said that the two major constraints being faced by the investors are less availability of finance and high interest rates. He observed that while the inflation is hovering around 4 per cent, the marginal credit rate of banks is over 7 per cent.
“The cost of capital cannot be equal to rate of returns, it (rate of returns) must be higher than cost of capital in the long run. So, this is where I think we need to have a very good look.
“...Otherwise, I am afraid despite the promise, growth rates may not be sustained,” Kumar noted. He also expressed displeasure at politicisation of release of back-series GDP data Wednesday at a joint press conference addressed by him and Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava.
Kumar said “I am deeply pained at people who politicised it for no reason at all.” The vice-chairman also pointed out that the Centre needs to invest more in the country’s statistical system. Noting that invest climate and capacity utilisations are improving, Kumar said, “Domestic investments is going to drive the Indian economy.” He also stressed on need of improving competitiveness of India’s production units by the government and industry working together.
“We have not done enough to modernise our agriculture,” he noted.
Growth ‘pretty decent’ despite macro instability: Adviser
Meanwhile, defending the revision in GDP growth rates for most of the 10-year UPA rule, Sanjeev Sanyal, Principal Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance, said the basis for the revision was use of internationally accepted standards.
“From time to time GDP series is revised. You take a base year and then calculate it. This reflects that the structure of the economy changes from time to time. We have taken 2011-12 as base year and we have calculated and now we have created a back series as well.
“The further you go away from the base period, you can go back to 1950 also, it will give worse reflection of time that is why it was decided, for whatever reason you can ask the CSO, that 2004-05 was a good period from where you can create a back series,” he said
The revised numbers show economic growth rate averaged 6.7 pc during the Congress-led UPA regime against 7.3 pc under the present government.