The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
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The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 30, 2018.
Grain Markets have all hands on deck searching for the latest clues regarding tomorrow's high-stakes meeting between the US and Chinese President's Trump and Xi. End of month positioning will also play a role as traders prep for the final trading month of the year.
Weekly export sales for the week of the 16th through Thursday the 22nd had corn sales of 1,266,460 metric tonnes for 2018/19, over the 400,000 – 950,000 estimate. Soybean sales totaled 628,783 metric tonnes during this period, within the 400,000 - 900,000 trade estimate. We have shipped out 438 million bushels of soybeans so far. That is the lowest in seven years. Wheat sales totaled 377,079 metric tonnes during this period. That was within the 250,000 – 500,000 trade estimate.
Allendale's Soybean writer, Jim McCormick, noted, "A choppy session was had [yesterday] as the market rallied and sold-off with every tweet/headline on what progress may or may not be made at this weekend’s meeting between President Trump and China’s President XI." Sunday night's reopen could be wild depending on the outcome. Consider how you're positioned, and call your Allendale broker for advice.
With so much focus on tomorrow's meeting, Rich Nelson will record a free webinar on potential outcomes for the market after the meeting concludes. We will make it available as soon as the recording is complete, but you can sign up to have it emailed to you.
Today is first notice day in the December contracts. Deliveries are based on the oldest positions as of yesterday's close, however, they were very light overnight. Last trade will be December 14.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency lifted its annual blending mandate for advanced biofuels by 15 percent for 2019, while keeping the requirement for conventional biofuels like corn-based ethanol steady, according to an agency document seen by Reuters on Thursday.
Managed money funds were sellers of 3,000 soybean contracts, 4,000 wheat, 1,000 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil. They were buyers of 3,500 corn.
U.S. lawmakers have struck a deal in principle on the Farm Bill, the top agriculture lawmakers and senators said on Thursday, capping months of bitter partisan debate over the legislation to fund $867 billion in food and agriculture programs. (Reuters)
Confirmation of rumors of Chinese pork buying was seen yesterday. For 2018 delivery, USDA reported 20,934 metric tonnes in sales made from the 16th - 22nd. Chinese buyers were responsible for 3,300 of that. For 2019 delivery, 12,979 metric tonnes were reported. Of that, 9,400 tonnes were purchases by Chinese buyers.
Actual Slaughter showed steer weights fell by 4 lbs. in this week to now 900 lbs. per carcass. They fell from 0.2% over last year to now 0.2% under. Heifer weights fell by 2 lbs. in this week to now 836. They fell from 0.5% over last year to now even with last year.
Hog data had barrow/gilt weights, market hogs, rose by 1 lb. during this week to bring the average carcass to 213. It is normal for weights to rise into late November. They were even with the previous week and again even in this specific week.
Dressed Beef Values were mixed with choice down 0.67 and select up .03. The CME Feeder Index is at 147.47. Pork cutout value was up .70.
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