The outcome of Assembly Elections 2018 may bring bad news for the BJP in Ujjain division. Big surprises are in offing in this traditional BJP bastion as Congress which secured only one seat, out of 29 seats, in 2013 elections may take its tally to double digit this time. BJP is likely to register victory on about one dozen seats. Outcome of rest 8 to 10 seats hangs in balance due to triangular fight. However, one thing is sure there will be no repetition of 2013 because the BJP has repeated tickets of its sitting MLAs.
PLUS & MINUS FACTORS FOR BJP
During the past fortnight, election campaigning saw upheavals almost everywhere in the backdrop of lust for voter increasing among the so-called janvsevaks (public servants). Throat cutting competition was evident in the BJP camp as at least 10 ticket aspirants were there in the race, but the party had to choose only and its leadership preferred sitting MLAs and relied on old faces.
As the BJP in power in the State for last 15 year and at Centre for 5 years, aspirations, expectations and ambitions of the party’s rank and file reached beyond the limits and this is the major reason that most of its candidates are facing sabotage. Issue of killing of farmers in Mandsaur, unemployment, corruption, inflation, inconveniences experienced by the people, in general, and trading community, in particular, during demonetisation may dent the poll prospects of the party.
However, factor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and his counterpart in Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath as well as welfare schemes like Sambal Yojana, Ladli Laxmi Yojana, housing schemes, subsidised food grains, women empowerment, etc, still proving a boon to the party candidates at large.
WHETHER ‘VOTE FOR CHANGE’ WOULD FAVOUR CONG?
So far as Congress is concerned, its slogan ‘vote for change’, has attracted attention of masses particularly young voters. Party candidates also succeeded in capitalising the anti-incumbency prevailing against the sitting BJP MLAs. On most of the seats, the party high command tipped those candidates who have strong caste background and who can mobilise their own resources viz money and workers.
Former CM Digvijaya Singh played a crucial role to settle the rebellion and also in balancing the caste equations. Party’s star campaigner Jyotiraditya Scindia also addressed a series of election meetings and conducted few road shows. Cine star Raj Babbar and Nagma also extended their services for the party, but former’s utterances against the PM Modi created problems for the party as common people took it otherwise that the PM’s mother and father were taken on task during electioneering. All in all, good days appear to be coming for Congress as it has nothing to lose, yet its rebel candidates on at least a dozen seats likely to stop its smooth sailing.
EMERGING PICURE OF UJJAIN DISTRICT
Congress candidates look taking lead on Barnagar and Ghattiya seats. There is reportedly a neck-to-neck contest on Tarana and Nagda-Khachrod seats. BJP looks stronger on Ujjain North, Ujjain South and Mahidpur, but independent candidates who showed their strong presence during the campaigning may turn the turf. Observers feel that such independent candidates are posing trouble for both Congress and BJP, but looking to the saboteurs among Congress camps, BJP may get benefit at the last. This way out of 7 seats, BJP may wrest 3, Congress 2 and nothing can be said about two.
RATLAM DISTRICT LOOKS FAVOuRABLE FOR CONGRESS
According to reports, out of five seats Congress candidates look to be strong on Ratlam Rural and Sailana while condition of BJP candidate is strong on Ratlam City. There is neck to neck contest on rest two seats of the district viz Jaora and Alote.
BIG SURPRISES AHEAD IN DEWAS DISTRICT
Out of five seats, BJP is likely to wrest 2 seats while condition of Congress candidates is reported to be strong on three seats. If official sources are to be believed, BJP candidates have shown strong presence on Dewas and Khategaon seats. Likewise, Congress candidates are reportedly doing well on rest three seats viz Sonkutch, Hatpipliya and Bagli seats.
50-50 IN MANDSAUR DISTRICT
Tough contest is being held on Mandsaur and Suwasra seats. Congress has only one MLA in the division in the form of Hardeep Singh Dang from Suwasra, but he is trapped in triangular fight there this time. Indication suggests that BJP may take lead on Malhargarh while Congress may emerge stronger from Garoth seat.
NOTHING CAN BE SAID ABOUT NEEMUCH DISTRICT
Out of three seats, wind may blow in favour of BJP, Congress or even the independent candidate. Though all three seats viz Neemuch, Javad and Manasa are in the BJP bag, rebels and independent candidates may turn the fortunes of the arch rival parties. Sources said that strong polarisation trends may change the election outcome overnight.
ELECToRATES APPEAR CONFUSED IN SHAJAPUR DISTRICT
Due to rebels, independents and changing of seats of sitting MLA, confusing picture is likely to emerge from here. Out of three seats Congress may attain gain from Shajapur seat, but the path of its candidate in Shujalpur may be stopped due to his background. In Kalapipal, BJP is trying to cash the outsider factor of Congress candidate. The role of RSS and sister organisations may change the equations at the last moment in the district, as opined by sources.
BJP STRUGGLING IN AGAR MALWA DISTRICT
Here are two seats and both were won by the BJP last time. Present Shajapur-Dewas MP and former minister of state Manohar Untwal has been fielded from Agar seat and he is struggling from there. According to reports, BJP may take a lead from Susner as a rebel is posing problems for the Congress candidate.
LIKELY PICTURE IN UJJAIN DIVISION
BJP: May take lead on 10 seats
Congress: May perform better on 11 seats
Unclear: Keen contest on rest 8 seats and its outcome will decide the final picture