The September quarter saw a fall in consolidated adjusted gross revenue (AGR) of telecom operators. Though the decline was only by 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, it was a steep 15.8 per cent year-on-year for the industry owing to seasonality and down-trading.

Of the total AGR of Rs 31,870 crore, national long distance (NLD) revenue stood at Rs 7,290 crore, down 10 per cent QoQ and up 3 per cent YoY.

During the quarter, Relaince Jio’s revenue market share (RMS) increased to 26.2 per cent from 22.4 per cent in the June quarter and has become the leader, in terms of revenue, in 11 circles, says a research report on the telecom industry.

Vodafone Idea saw revenue decline in 20 circles while Airtel reported revenue declines in 11 circles during Q2.

Vodafone Idea, whose numbers have been merged by the regulator from Q2FY19, recorded the highest revenue decline of 6.2 per cent QoQ against Bharti Airtel’s 3 per cent decline. Bharti’s RMS remained more or less stable at 31.0 per cent (-66 basis points QoQ). Vodafone Idea revenue market share stood at 32.9 per cent (on a comparable basis), down 183 bps QoQ.

Vodafone Idea’s RMS of 32.9 per cent is vulnerable because of the current hyper-competitive scenario and the expected subscriber loss during the ongoing integration. The combined entity has lost 330 bps in RMS compared to the year-ago figures.

On the other hand Jio has gained 1,460 bps over the 12 months. Jio is the No. 1 operator in 11 circles vs 10 circles QoQ and the top revenue circles contribute 52 per cent of its revenue vs. 41 per cent of the total industry revenue.

The combined revenue of the incumbents declined 5 per cent QoQ and 20 per cent YoY, with their market share contracting 240 bps sequentially to 64 per cent, mainly due to the negative performance of Idea and Vodafone and continued growth for Jio.

The report, published by brokerage Emkay Global, says hyper-competition will prevail in the sector as Jio’s focus remains on gaining subscriber and revenue market share. Incumbents’ revenue is expected to marginally stabilise with the recently launched minimum recharge plans. However, discount reductions/tariff revisions from Jio are the key for a sustainable rebound in industry revenue.

Jio: Adjusted gross revenue (AGR), including NLD, increased 16 per cent QoQ to Rs 8,300 crore from Rs 7,200 crore. Revenue market share (RMS) expanded 382 bps QoQ to 26.2 per cent from 22.4 per cent in Q1FY19. Gross revenue stood at Rs 11,500 crore against Rs 10,000 crore in Q1, up 15.1 per cent QoQ.  Jio remains strong in B and C circles and it commands No. 1 position in 11 circles. These circles contribute 52 per cent of its revenue and 41 per cent of the total industry revenue. For Jio’s top-7 circles, AGR rose 18 per cent YoY.

Airtel: AGR, including NLD, fell 3 per cent QoQ and 15.1 per cent YoY to Rs 9,880 crore, with a RMS of 31.0 per cent (-66bps QoQ and up 29 bps YoY). Revenue from the top-7 circles declined 2 per cent QoQ and contributed 62 per cent to the total revenue. Airtel reported revenue declines in 11 circles, down from 14 circles in Q1FY19.

Vodafone Idea: AGR, including NLD, declined 6 per cent QoQ (24 per cent YoY) to Rs 10500 crore, with a RMS of 32.9 per cent (-183bps QoQ and -337bps YoY). Of the 22 circles, 20 saw revenue declines. AGR for the top-7 circles, which contribute 56 per cent to the total revenue, was down 9 per cent QoQ and 33 per cent YoY.

BSNL/MTNL: BSNL recorded a 17 per cent QoQ decline in AGR including NLD, with a RMS of 6.6 per cent (-127 bps QoQ). MTNL reported a 38 per cent QoQ increase in revenue, driven by a meaningful increase in the revenue of the Delhi circle.