Why Chhattisgarh, a BJP stronghold, is actually a very close contest

For the decade and half that Chhattisgarh has been a separate state, it’s been a BJP stronghold with the saffron party winning all three assembly elections with a high majority of seats. Its three-time chief minister, Dr Raman Singh, is the BJP's longest-serving chief minister and the face of the party in the state.

Does that mean it will be smooth sailing for the party this election as well? A look at data on how voters in different regions polled in the last election (2013) gives an idea of how parties have fared in the state.

In 2013, the Congress won a majority of the tribal seats in north and south Chhattisgarh winning 18 of the 29 seats. In 2008, BJP had won a majority of ST seats in these areas. That the Congress was able to wrest tribal seats from the BJP indicates that the voters here had a change of heart in the last election.



The BJP did succeed in strengthening its hold on SC seats in the state winning 9 out of 10 in the in 2013 against 5 in 2008. But this time around, its hold on SC seats may not be as firm. Reason: the alliance between Ajit Jogi Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and the BSP -- both have considerable influence on SC votes -- is expected to dent the BJP's influence. The tie-up has pushed the BJP to change tack and the party is now splicing the voter categories further by wooing the OBCs -- it has given 14 more tickets to people from the community this election. The Congress too has followed suit with 9 tickets to OBC candidates.




Will this help either party? Vote share of both parties in the state indicate the contest will be close. In 2013, BJP's vote share was 41% while the Congress followed close behind with 40%. The story was similar in 2008 – BJP's vote share was 40% and Congress' was 39%. Dig a little deeper, and you see that margins between the two parties are only getting narrower. In 2003, BJP’s vote share margin was 2.5%; a decade later, in 2013 it had reduced to .75% – a clear indication that the Congress has been nipping at its heals.





If this is the trend to go by then the the party that's been able to connect with voters better at the ground level will have an advantage. In the last three years, the BJP has been able to do that a shade better than the Congress -- just enough to sail through. This time it is fighting incumbency and despite having several citizen friendly policies, its facing the public’s wrath for poor last mile implementation. With these factors in play, the scales may tip in favour of the Congress, which could be an indicator of things to come in 2019.


Explore TOIs data hub to know how the state voted in the past

In video: Why Chhattisgarh matters: All you need to know