The Secret of Pelosi’s Success
Democratic opposition melts away as the left gets behind her.
Democrats were never likely to depose Nancy Pelosi as their candidate to be the next House Speaker, but the growing likelihood that she will prevail in a caucus election on Wednesday is nonetheless revealing about who will run the House in the next two years, and maybe longer.
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Sixteen Democrats last week signed a letter opposing Mrs. Pelosi’s Speaker bid, which sounds problematic if the Democratic majority in the House is 15 or 16 as it is likely to be when all votes are counted. But that’s down from the 24 who once said they wouldn’t vote for her, or others who said she didn’t have their support or favored “new leadership.”
A list of them is nearby, but look for most to fold like former Rep. Bart Stupak did on abortion in ObamaCare in 2010. Opposition to Mrs. Pelosi has been melting away as no one has stepped up to run against her. Reps. Kathleen Rice (New York) and Seth Moulton (Mass.) are dissenters without a following. Mrs. Pelosi has also bought off some opponents with the perquisites of regained power.
Ohio’s Marcia Fudge folded after she was promised a subcommittee chair on elections. New York Rep. Brian Higgins was one of the 16 who signed the opposition letter, but he surrendered after Mrs. Pelosi promised to push $1 trillion in spending for public works and offer Medicare to anyone older than 50.
Mrs. Pelosi also has the enforcers of the political left on her side. Outfits like MoveOn.org and the Daily Kos are threatening to support primary challengers to anyone who votes against her. MSNBC and the mainstream media are also solidly in her camp.
Progressives require control of Congress to fulfill their main policy goal of expanding government, so they understand the importance of a united front. Don’t look for the kind of Freedom Caucus revolts that bedeviled GOP Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan.
All of this means that the political left is going to run the House for the next two years, which may surprise some voters. Democrats regained the House in large part by running moderates in swing districts where many GOP voters were unhappy with Donald Trump. But those moderates will now mostly be riding in the caboose when it comes to policy.
Many of those victorious challengers said they opposed Mrs. Pelosi, but that was mostly a campaign gambit to appeal to GOP and independent voters. Nine House Democrats said last week they’ll oppose Mrs. Pelosi unless she accepts rule changes to allow more bipartisan cooperation, but that’s also mostly political stagecraft. They’ll be expected to salute and vote the party line unless Mrs. Pelosi gives them a pass on specific votes.
Look for the Pelosi Democrats to push a $15 national minimum wage, price controls on pharmaceuticals, taxpayer-paid family leave, tax increases on business and high earners to pay for more tax credits or social spending, a “public option” as part of ObamaCare and Medicare for pre-retirees.
Mrs. Pelosi will try to lure President Trump into these progressive policy traps, much as she did George W. Bush on energy and taxes in 2007. She’ll try to use Mr. Trump to promote cracks in the GOP Senate, setting up tough votes for Republicans even if Democratic bills are filibustered or vetoed. Her larger goal will be to tee up a legislative agenda for 2021, when Mrs. Pelosi and Democrats expect to repeat their hat trick of 2008 and retake the White House and both houses of Congress.
All of this could squeeze some of the first-term Democrats, but that was true the last time she took power in 2007, and Democrats gained seats in 2008. They weren’t wiped out until 2010, and Mrs. Pelosi has said the passage of ObamaCare was worth that political cost.
Now that she’s back in power, she’ll try to repeat the experience. She figures, and not without cause, that the presidential race will be more important to House races in 2020 than who is Speaker. Don’t be surprised if she’s still running the House in 2021.