Pinarayi Vijayan’s tightrope walk puts CPM’s prospects at stake

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In politics, there may not be many occasions when a leader can have the cake and eat it too. But Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan, by adopting an unpopular and idealistic position regarding the entry of young women to Sabarimala temple - is attempting to do that.

Pinarayi — and, of course, the CPM—welcomed the Sept-28 Supreme Court order with enthusiasm as it provided him an opportunity to reclaim the title of ‘renaissance leader’ of Kerala along with reaping rich political dividends.

But Pinarayi’s state-wide campaign, advocating the need for gender equality in all spheres including religion and reminding the people of Kerala to dump all rusted rituals, had a hidden agenda. It was clearly targeted at the BJP and Sangh Parivar.

Through these debates Vijayan, by directly engaging with the BJP, successfully side-lined the major opposition United Democratic Front led by Congress to the extreme peripheral of Kerala polity. The fight has been narrowed to CPM vs BJP.

Sources in the CPM said they don’t feel that the strategy of the party would cost dearly in electoral politics. “BJP may win more votes. But, that would be votes traditionally won by the Congress”, said a CPM leader. With Hindu votes splitting between BJP and Congress, the CPM hopes to grab the major share of minority votes.

“Congress has now become the best friend forever of BJP,” Pinarayi Vijayan said while criticising the protest launched by the UDF at Nilackal on Tuesday. CPM state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, CPI state secretary Kanam Rajendran and LDF convener A Vijayaraghavan take efforts to ensure that they mention about the unholy alliance between Congress and BJP whenever they meet media or address public. The intention is clear – to give a message to the minority communities which form 44% of the Kerala population that the LDF is the only front in which they can repose their faith.

This is not the first time that Pinarayi Vijayan is attempting to woo minorities. Nine years ago, while occupying the office of the state secretary of CPM, Vijayan had put forth a formula to win considerable chunk of minority votes and thus broaden the vote base of LDF. ‘ Hardliner’ Abdul Nasar Madani, who had been acquitted in a terror case, was the ally Vijayan chose to execute his plan in the 2009 Lok Sabha election. There was a pre-poll understanding with Madani’s People’s Democratic Party which the CPM hoped to create sharp divide in the vote base of Muslim League, a constituent of UDF. The result, however, was disastrous. The wave of consolidated Hindu votes uprooted the LDF from 16 of the 20 constituencies.

The magic potion of winning half of Hindu, Christian and Muslim votes in the state and continue in the governance perpetually was first proposed by Pinarayi Vijayan’s mentor in the party M V Raghavan. The CPM had discussed MVR’s ‘alternate document’ and dismissed it. The tall leader was expelled from the party in 1986 after being accused of falling prey to ‘parliamentary revisionism’. Though Raghavan broke out and formed his own version of Communist party, there were leaders in the CPM who secretly believed in the pragmatic vision MVR had outlined. Pinarayi Vijayan was prominent among them.

While the formula reads fine in theory, scenario in the grassroots is much more complex. Not only the BJP, prominent ‘ communal’ organisations like NSS and SNDPare also at loggerheads with the government. Though the CPM prompted SNDP general secretary Vellappally Natesan who leads Ezhavas, the largest Hindu denomination in the state, to profess his support for the Sabarimala women entry, BDJS - the political party led by his son Thushar Vellappally – is opposing the proposal tooth and nail. Insiders say cadres are aligned with Thushar while a section of leaders stay with Natesan. NSS, another prominent Hindu organisation, has declared open war against the government.

Many in the CPM now suspect about the extent of erosion of Hindu votes. In addition to the Hindu votes traditionally won by the UDF, chances are high that major chunk of Hindu voters of LDF switching sides in the coming poll. The hurt factor, multiplied by continuing police highhandedness in the hill shrine, is so deep that CPM workers who are campaigning for the ensuing local body bypoll at different parts of the state are facing unprecedented ire from their traditional voters. Concerned leaders of LDF also point fingers at the result of Nemom constituency which elected a BJP MLA in 2016. The real fight there was between CPM and BJP with the UDF candidates pushed to a distant third. By cashing in on the Sabarimala issue, what the BJP hopes is a replication of Nemom in majority of the constituency. The CPM, in its hurry to finish Congress, seems to have ignored this factor.