Oil bounces by $1 per barrel after 6-percent plunge\, but outlook still weak

Oil bounces by $1 per barrel after 6-percent plunge, but outlook still weak

Reuters  |  SINGAPORE 

By Gloystein

But investors remained on edge, with the International Agency (IEA) warning of unprecedented uncertainty in markets due to a difficult economic environment and political risk.

International Brent futures were at $63.60 per barrel at 0516 GMT, up $1.07 per barrel, or 1.7 percent from their last close.

U.S. Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up $1.03 cents, or 1.9 percent, at $54.46 a barrel.

Wednesday's rebound came after a report by the late on Tuesday that U.S. commercial crude inventories last week fell unexpectedly by 1.5 million barrels, to 439.2 million, in the week to Nov. 16.

Record crude imports by of almost 5 million barrels per day (bpd) also supported prices, traders said.

Yet Wednesday's bounce did little to reverse overall market weakness, which saw crude tumble by more than 6 percent the previous session amid a selloff in global stock markets.

"The global economy is still going through a very difficult time and is very fragile," IEA chief said on Tuesday.

U.S. said on Wednesday the renewed price collapse reflected "concerns over excess supply in 2019... (and) a broader cross-commodity and cross-asset sell-off as growth concerns continue to mount."

With output surging and the demand outlook deteriorating, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is pushing for a supply cut of between 1 million and 1.4 million bpd to prevent a repeat of the 2014 glut.

"We would anticipate further weakness until the reaction from OPEC+ (Dec. 6) and the summit is clearer (Nov. 30/Dec. 1)," said Ashley Kelty, at Europe.

OVERSUPPLY

Despite an expectation of OPEC-led cuts, Brent and WTI prices have slumped by 28 and 30 percent respectively since early October, and the entire structure of the forward price curve has changed.

The Brent forward curve was in steep backwardation in October, implying a tight market with prices for spot delivery higher than those for later dispatch. This makes it unattractive to store oil.

Since then, however, the curve has moved into contango for most of 2019, implying oversupply as higher prices further out make it attractive to store oil for later sale.

"A recovery in prices will... require that the Brent forward curve returns into backwardation from its sudden and significant flattening," Goldman said.

James Mick, portfolio manager with U.S. investment firm Tortoise, said "part of the supply issue has been surging U.S. production."

U.S. has jumped by almost a quarter this year, to a record 11.7 million bpd largely because of a surge in shale output.

(Reporting by Gloystein; Editing by and Richard Pullin)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Wed, November 21 2018. 10:59 IST