The Tory Bid to Oust Theresa May Is Struggling

Nov 19 2018, 4:31 PMNov 19 2018, 5:47 PMNovember 19 2018, 4:31 PMNovember 19 2018, 5:47 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Evidence is mounting that the plot to oust U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is faltering.

To trigger a vote of no confidence in her leadership, a total of 48 Conservative lawmakers need to submit letters, texts or emails calling for one. Late last week, as the backlash against May’s Brexit deal gathered pace, there was speculation that the threshold could be reached at any moment.

But on Monday, the euroskeptic European Research Group, which has waged a concerted media campaign to keep up the pressure, appeared distinctly less ebullient. As a person familiar with the situation said the key number had not been reached, one Tory Brexiteer hinted that now might not be the best time to strike.

“My expectation is that the number will be reached and there will be a vote at some point,” Crispin Blunt said in an interview in his House of Commons office under a full-size union flag. “One could argue that it would be better that that vote comes after the vote on the deal. If one were to sequence this properly: one would wait until we had the vote on the deal and then have the vote on the prime minister’s position as leader of the Conservative Party.”

Parliament is due to debate May’s Brexit deal in early December, and politicians across the chamber say they will vote it down.

Close Secret

The only person who knows for sure how many votes are in is Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of rank-and-file Tory MPs. Tall and polite, the 51-year-old appeared calm as he enjoyed a leisurely coffee in Parliament Monday.

So far, more than 20 Tory lawmakers have publicly declared they want May to go. Meanwhile newspapers have been claiming for weeks the number is well over 40, with The Sun putting the number of letters at 42 on Monday. The required number represents 15 percent of the Conservative MPs.

Arch Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith, a former Conservative leader who was himself deposed via this arcane process, led a group into Downing Street this afternoon to ask for changes to the premier’s deal. Asked by reporters afterwards how the meeting had gone, Duncan Smith only replied that it had been “good” and “constructive.” Brexit-backers object to May’s deal because it risks tying the U.K. to EU rules indefinitely.

One Tory member of Parliament said that despite claiming to have up to 80 supporters, ERG members won’t vote as a bloc when it comes to toppling May. The group is divided as to the best strategy.

Even so, some haven’t given up hope of deposing her, anxious that a change of leadership is the only way to alter the direction of Brexit. One Tory lawmaker compared the process to the movie Jaws. Like a shark circling under the water, the number of letters could be growing, could reach 48 and surface to bite her at any time.