Net zero operations for industry and transport possible by mid-century\, research finds

Net zero operations for industry and transport possible by mid-century, research finds

It is technically and financially possible to decarbonise heavy industry and transport around the world by 2060, Energy Transitions Commission concludes

Heavy industry and heavy duty transport could operate with net zero transport emissions by 2060, at a cost of less than 0.5 per cent of global GDP, according to new analysis today by the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC).

Based on consultations with over 200 industry experts, the influential research body suggests some of the most diffult sectors to decarbonise could slash carbon emissions in time to meet global climate targets at an affordable cost.

Sectors such as cement, steel, plastics, trucking, shipping and aviation are typically seen as some of the more difficult areas of the global economy to fully decarbonise.

Altogether these sectors represent 30 per cent of energy emissions and their share could rise to 60 per cent by mid-century as other sectors lower their emissions, the ETC said.

But today's report sets out possible routes to fully eradicate industrial and transport emissions, arguing net zero emissions are possible based on technologies which already exist, even if several have yet to reach commercial readiness.

The paper argues a major focus on electrification of transport and industry is needed - both directly and also via a crucial role for hydrogen - which will propel a sharp four-to-six fold increase in global power demand between now and mid-century.

Zero carbon road transport is likely to become cost-competitive by 2030, it adds, while long distance shipping and aviation can be decarbonised through the widespread use of bio- or synthetic fuels.

For heavy industry, more efficient use of materials alongside greatly increased recycling and reuse rates are crucial to cutting costs and CO2, potentially reducing emissions by as much as 40 per cent, the analysis estimates.

The three biggest decarbonisation challenges are listed as plastics, shipping and cement, but the ETC argues strong carbon pricing, resource efficiency regulation, and a role for carbon capture and storage (CCS) can nevertheless fully decarbonise these and other sectors by mid-century.

Moreover, it states that the investment needed to deliver such full spectrum decarbonisation could prove even lower than the estimated 0.5 per cent GDP, if improvements in energy efficiency, resource efficiency, and curbed demand growth for carbon intensive transport are optimised.

Lord Adair Turner, co-chair of the ETC, said the report set out an "optimistic but completely realistic message". "We can build a zero-carbon economy with a minor cost to economic growth," he said. "We should now commit to achieving this by 2060 at the latest, and put in place the policies and investments required to deliver it."

The ETC brings together business leaders from the likes of Shell, BP, Drax, HSBC, Vattenfall, Veolia, with officials from the UN and academics such as Turner and LSE Professor Lord Nicholas Stern to discuss pressing climate and decarbonisation challenges.