As one of the biggest extravaganzas of the Indian Democracy — the 2019 Lok Sabha polls — is coming closer, each development in the country, small or big, is assuming a huge significance. The recent by-elections for the State Assembly and Lok Sabha in Karnataka, thus, gather importance. Now that the Congress-JD(S) combo has achieved huge success in this exercise, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has naturally pushed itself back on defensive position and the Karnataka ruling alliance of the Congress and the JD(S) are all set to take the fullest advantage. Bellary, synonymous with the Reddy brothers — mining barons and the richest politicians in Karnataka — told a big story as results of by-elections in five seats. The Alliance has swept the seat with a record margin of over two lakh votes. The final tally of four out of five seats in favour of the ruling alliance brought Diwali joy to the Congress.
Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram tweeted that “the win looks like a test series under Virat Kohli. The coalition had delivered.” Continuing with the cricket synonyms, the Man of the Match for the Congress was clearly the man for all seasons, D K Shivakumar, who worked overtime to ensure the Bellary win. From sequestering Gujarat Congress MLAs to prevent their poaching in a critical Rajya Sabha election, to ferrying busloads of legislators out of town to stymie the BJP’s attempts to win them over — even facing the wrath of central investigative agencies — Shivakumar has always delivered for the Congress. Bellary was the Congress’s assignment for its trouble-shooter Shivakumar, who played a key role in the party’s alliance.
Interpreting Bellary
Political watchers are busy interpreting the story that Bellary tells and what does it mean for the national narrative just weeks before crucial assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Clearly, the voter is not buying this. The big takeaway for the Opposition, much like from the Kairana by-election in Uttar Pradesh, is that it needs to unite in local strategic alliances to take on an aggressive BJP. The voter keeps sending this message to the Opposition, and even in a bipolar polity like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Congress will ignore this voter nudge at its electoral peril. The BJP dissing the “Mahagathbandhan” (grand alliance) as a return to “khichdi” (messy) politics is not getting any traction among voters.
Both Modi and Amit Shah have repeatedly touted the virtues of a strong government under a strong leader yet the voter is unconvinced. The importance of strong regional leaders is the key to any victory over the BJP. An alliance sans strong local leaders will simply not yield any results. Rahul Gandhi has to empower local leaders to woo the voters — much like he has done in Rajasthan (Sachin Pilot, Ashok Gehlot) and Madhya Pradesh (Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia) — and also ensure that leaders like Digvijaya Singh in Madhya Pradesh do not make trouble, by giving tickets to both, his son and brother. The result is that the Congress has surged ahead in Bellary, a BJP stronghold since 2004. In Chhattisgarh, lack of a strong leader after Ajit Jogi has ensured trouble for the Congress party and helped incumbent chief minister Raman Singh of the BJP despite huge anti-incumbency. Local coalition plus mass-based regional leaders is the only recipe for success against Amit Shah.
Curiously, this is perhaps the first time that even the Opposition is finally taking Rahul seriously as a leader of the anti-BJP coalition. The sight of Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu calling on Rahul at his residence, complete with photo ops and fervent pleas of unity, shows that winning is all that matters in politics. Naidu, till recently, was a BJP ally and his party’s ideology was mainly an anti-Congress campaign. For the first time, Rahul, going hammer and tongs on the Rafael deal, is setting the political narrative and Modi and Shah are scrambling to play catch up.
The Congress president has also capitalised on the uncharacteristic missteps by Modi, such as the post-midnight coup targeting CBI director Alok Verma, who has gone to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court is also examining the Rafael deal, which is also becoming a huge concern for the government, despite their spin. Says a senior minister: “The last months of our government now resemble the last month of UPA-2 when the courts virtually ran the executive and new scams tumbled out daily”. Rahul is losing no opportunity to wrest the advantage, especially in the Modi government’s face-off with the Reserve Bank. While Modi has not said a word, conveying the image of being above it all, the bad news for his government — all lead to the doorsteps of the PMO. Rahul’s narrative of the BJP attacking independent institutions is certainly a story the voter seems to agree with.
Headline management faltering
On the other hand, the BJP’s headline management, for the first time, seems to be faltering. The grand Sardar Patel Statue of Unity was overshadowed by the Urjit Patel-RBI autonomy saga. Attempts to drown out negative headlines using the tried and tested Ram Mandir in Ayodhya don’t quite seem to be working. If the Opposition can stay united in Uttar Pradesh, with regional giants Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party burying their historic enmity, then the Ram Mandir may not get the BJP its 2014 tally of 73 out of 80 seats. The BJP president Amit Shah, dubbed the Chanakya of politics, has still to find his party place to expand in south and east India to make up for the UP shortfall. While the Congress has made its alliance with JD(S) work smoothly, the BJP has fractious allies in Punjab, Maharashtra and Bihar.
In short, the Karnataka by-election results have opened the floodgates of various political interpretations and now it seems to be free for all to predict the final outcome.
Bharatkumar Raut is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).