Will Karnataka bypoll outcome speed up process of a grand alliance?

BENGALURU: The resounding victory of the Congress-JD(S) alliance in the bypolls to three Lok Sabha and two assembly seats in the state has triggered a debate on whether it will speed up the formation of a mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) of anti-BJP forces, especially regional satraps, under the Congress ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

“The bypoll outcome will definitely inspire regional parties, who are worried about taking on the BJP single-handedly, to bury their differences and join hands,” said political analyst Mahadev Prakash. “We see it coming soon.”

The Congress-JD(S) alliance won two of the three Lok Sabha seats and both assembly seats in the bypolls held on November 3 by massive margins. The highlight was Congress recapturing Ballari Lok Sabha constituency from the grasp of the BJP after 14 years.

The 4-1 victory has come at a time when regional parties, especially the Mayawati-led BSP, have shown signs of steering clear of the proposed grand alliance just months after leaders displayed great bonhomie at the swearing-in ceremony of chief minister H D Kumaraswamy.

Talks of an alliance between Congress and the BSP failed in Madhya Pradesh over differences over seat sharing. Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has already announced that his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will go it alone in next year’s general election owing to serious differences with the Congress. These developments have certainly raised doubts over the very possibility of a grand alliance at the national level.

Political analyst Sandeep Shastri said compulsions of political survival will drive regional parties together. An example, he said, is the case of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and BSP in Bihar — two parties that otherwise refused to see eye to eye.

“Results of the Karnataka bypolls have shown that if they [opposition parties] come together, work together and stay together, they can challenge the BJP,” Shastri said. “It will be interesting to see whether it will become a base for a grand alliance at the national level.”

Prakash suggested JD(S) patriarch H D Deve Gowda himself will take the lead to make a grand alliance a reality ahead of 2019 elections.

“The bypoll results have shown the importance of Congress and JD(S) aligning in Karnataka,” Prakash said. “Since, he enjoys good equations with many regional leaders and is one of the senior-most politicians in the country, Gowda will naturally work with Congress to strengthen the mahagathbandhan.”

However, Harish Ramaswamy, another political analyst, said bypoll results alone will not speed up the process of forming a mahagathbandhan and the interests of regional parties will play a crucial role. “Right now, each party is thinking of its own fate and the situation differs from state to state,” Ramaswamy said. “Regional leaders will obviously focus on their survival first and only then will search for an opportunity to decide about their respective states.”