There is a 50% chance of rupee hitting 71/$ by March

The falling oil prices and currency swap deal with Japan should provide some support to the rupee, according to Crisil which sees rupee at 71/$ as base case scenario

7.4%  – the decline is on-year basis

2.5% – trend rate of average depreciation per year in the last 15 years

35% – probability of rupee settling at 74/$

15% – probability of it appreciating to 68.5/dollar