NBC News House estimate: Democrats likely to win majority control

Democrats have a 90 percent chance of reclaiming the House majority, NBC News estimated Tuesday night.

The party could win as many as 33 seats — well over the 23 needed for the majority — for a total of 226, according to the estimate.

The call came with Democrats positioned to claim victory in a handful of bellwether congressional races, as polls began closing in some parts of the eastern U.S.

In Virginia, NBC News projected that incumbent GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock would lose her House seat in the state's 10th Congressional District to Democrat Jennifer Wexton. The race, in a suburban northern Virginia district Hillary Clinton won by 10 percentage points in 2016, had been regarded by many observers as critical to Republican hopes of maintaining control of the lower chamber.

In Florida, Democrat Donna Shalala, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Bill Clinton, was projected to win Florida's 27th Congressional District. The Miami seat had been held by retiring GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who had represented the area since 1989.

And in Colorado, Democrat Jason Crow defeated Denver-area GOP incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman.

But Republicans appeared to hold on in some closely-fought contests, such as Virginia's 5th Congressional District: the seat, which had been held by GOP Rep. Tom Garrett, was projected to go to Republican Denver Riggleman over Democrat Leslie Cockburn.

And in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, Rep. Andy Barr was projected to hold off a stiff challenge by Democrat Amy McGrath.

Across the country, voter turnout records seemed poised to fall, as the fight over control of Congress reached the final round of what was widely viewed as a referendum on President Donald Trump and his first two years in office.

According to NBC News exit polls, two out of every three voters Tuesday said Trump was a factor in their House vote, with 26 percent saying they cast their vote to express support for the president and 38 percent saying their vote was intended to oppose the president.

As the night began, Republicans held a 235-193 advantage in the lower chamber, with seven vacant seats.

Democrats had hoped to experience a wave election similar to the 2006 midterms when they captured 31 GOP-held seats amid voter discontent with President George W. Bush and the Iraq war. Republicans had been hopeful the booming economy this year could benefit their party.

Except for two recent midterm elections — in 1998, amid President Bill Clinton's impeachment saga, and in 2002, the year after the Sept. 11 attacks — midterm elections have generally been unfavorable to the party in control of the White House. Since President Harry S. Truman's tenure, the incumbent president's party has averaged a loss of more than 28 House seats in his first midterm election.

Trump, who had no public events Tuesday, said earlier in the week that Democrats could win the House.

"It will be ridiculous, frankly," he said at a campaign rally in Huntington, West Virginia. "It'll be bad for our country. The Democrats — and it could happen. Could happen. We're doing very well, and we're doing really well in the Senate. But it could happen."

Analysts have predicted that Democrats had a much better chance at winning the House than the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority. It was a difficult path for Democrats to reclaim the upper chamber, with far more Democratic than Republican seats up for re-election, and 10 of their incumbents running in states won by Trump in 2016.

Asked by reporters early Tuesday if she were 100 percent confident Democrats would re-take the House, Pelosi answered in the affirmative: "Yes, I am," she said.

Political observers had eyed 15 Republican-held House seats that are most likely to flip to Democrats in states such as Florida, Kansas, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa and California, among others. Several of those seats are held by GOP lawmakers who decided to retire, including Reps. Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J., and Ryan Costello, R-Pa.

There are also 23 races that are mostly considered toss-ups in states like Virginia, Illinois, Michigan and Texas, such as the races between incumbent Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, and Democrat Colin Allred; incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., and Democrat Anthony Brindisi; and incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., and Democrat Harley Rouda.