The benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has gained 8% in Samvat 2074 (till November 6, 2018, at 11 AM), as compared to 8.54% return in 2072, followed by 16.6% in last Samvat 2073. In Samvat 2071, the benchmark index recorded a negative return of 3.9%. The Hindu calendar year that starts on Diwali.
Indian markets have seen a high level of volatility in the past few months led by strong headwinds like rising crude prices and depreciation in INR. IL&FS default and consequent liquidity squeeze has added to the woes increasing the probability of slowdown in the economy. The Sensex has lost 10% from the peak while BSE mid cap (down 19%) and small-cap index (down 29%) were down more than 15% from their peak.
Despite lower returns recorded by benchmark indices in Samvat 2074, as compared to in past two years, investors who put their money in stocks like Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, VIP Industries, Radico Khaitan and Sterlite Technologies have made returns by more than 25% each in last three years.
Total seven stocks include Muthoot Capital Services, West Coast Paper, National Peroxide, Philips Carbon, Minda Industries and Filatex India have seen their market price more-than- doubled in two out of past three Samvat. Indiabulls Integrated Services has risen over 100% in past three Samvat years. The stock appreciated 35-times from Rs 9.61 to Rs 339, despite fallen 57% from its all-time high level of Rs 785 on September 11, 2018.
These companies are from the S&P BSE Allcap index, which accounts 97% market capitalisation of BSE listed companies.
The gain in equity market during Samvat 2074 was fuelled by strong inflows from the domestic mutual funds (DFIs). They made net inflow of Rs 1.37 trillion in equities, against Rs 210 billion net outflows recorded by the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) during the period.
Seshasayee Paper, N R Agarwal Industries, JK Paper and West Coast Paper, from the paper industries, were surging up to 115% in Samvat 2074 on back of the robust demand outlook and rising consumerism. The Indian paper industry’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and ammortisation) margin rose from 11% in FY15 to 15.9% in FY18, despite capacity increases and rise in input costs due to improved pricing scenario, cost advantage of larger players and Chinese ban on certain quality of recovered paper, which reduced prices.
The next 12 months will be quite challenging marked by uncertain political events and evolving macroeconomic scenario. Political events will include assembly elections in 3 major states, which will set the tone for the upcoming General Elections in 2019. Marco economic scenario continues to remain a mixed bag with an improving GDP growth and worsening fiscal deficit and liquidity challenges along with emerging global challenges, according to Reliance Securities.
The market is unlikely to see any significant re-rating from the current levels and valuation multiples are likely to persist or even decrease from the current levels. However, such market conditions provide great opportunity to accumulate high-quality stocks at reasonable valuations which in normalised conditions are perceived to be expensive that too with limited upside, it added.
| Price on BSE in Rs | % gain in Samvat year | ||||||
| Company | 10/11/2015 | 28/10/2016 | 18/10/2017 | LTP | 2072 | 2073 | 2074 |
| Indiabulls Integ | 9.61 | 23.50 | 64.80 | 338.75 | 144.5 | 175.7 | 422.8 |
| DIL | 164.94 | 221.00 | 272.00 | 908 | 34.0 | 23.1 | 233.8 |
| Merck | 751.50 | 833.40 | 1143.40 | 3057 | 10.9 | 37.2 | 167.4 |
| Natl. Peroxide | 524.50 | 984.50 | 2028.35 | 4986.95 | 87.7 | 106.0 | 145.9 |
| NELCO | 68.70 | 89.40 | 109.20 | 252.65 | 30.1 | 22.1 | 131.4 |
| West Coast Paper | 67.00 | 136.15 | 183.05 | 394 | 103.2 | 34.4 | 115.2 |
| Vimta Labs | 83.25 | 101.85 | 126.95 | 273 | 22.3 | 24.6 | 115.0 |
| Renaissance Jew. | 102.65 | 150.40 | 176.35 | 341 | 46.5 | 17.3 | 93.4 |
| Universal Cables | 62.20 | 85.70 | 162.35 | 311 | 37.8 | 89.4 | 91.6 |
| Radico Khaitan | 108.30 | 141.30 | 211.80 | 398.9 | 30.5 | 49.9 | 88.3 |
| Andhra Petrochem | 15.50 | 16.89 | 37.90 | 69.85 | 9.0 | 124.4 | 84.3 |
| N R Agarwal Inds | 34.55 | 214.00 | 274.00 | 501.65 | 519.4 | 28.0 | 83.1 |
| Optiemus Infra. | 36.55 | 57.85 | 68.45 | 123.95 | 58.3 | 18.3 | 81.1 |
| Safari Inds. | 184.00 | 233.90 | 410.00 | 736.2 | 27.1 | 75.3 | 79.6 |
| Hil Ltd | 589.50 | 685.30 | 1287.35 | 2280.05 | 16.3 | 87.9 | 77.1 |
| V-Mart Retail | 441.70 | 514.65 | 1445.10 | 2509.9 | 16.5 | 180.8 | 73.7 |
| V I P Inds. | 90.35 | 145.90 | 265.20 | 442.9 | 61.5 | 81.8 | 67.0 |
| Biocon | 145.92 | 307.95 | 381.15 | 631.25 | 111.0 | 23.8 | 65.6 |
| Confidence Petro | 5.59 | 10.14 | 21.90 | 36 | 81.4 | 116.0 | 64.4 |
| Seshasayee Paper | 229.00 | 619.10 | 760.00 | 1215 | 170.3 | 22.8 | 59.9 |
| JK Paper | 42.65 | 90.90 | 113.15 | 179.1 | 113.1 | 24.5 | 58.3 |
| Aarti Inds. | 504.85 | 751.50 | 887.25 | 1397.95 | 48.9 | 18.1 | 57.6 |
| Vinati Organics | 398.00 | 598.20 | 971.05 | 1522.35 | 50.3 | 62.3 | 56.8 |
| Assoc.Alcohols | 62.60 | 121.60 | 171.80 | 261.05 | 94.2 | 41.3 | 51.9 |
| Guj. Ambuja Exp | 45.50 | 92.30 | 161.30 | 241.85 | 102.9 | 74.8 | 49.9 |
| Transpek Inds. | 353.20 | 518.40 | 1004.75 | 1500 | 46.8 | 93.8 | 49.3 |
| Punjab Chemicals | 169.10 | 211.05 | 396.35 | 586.35 | 24.8 | 87.8 | 47.9 |
| Sterlite Tech. | 67.42 | 102.45 | 257.05 | 378.5 | 52.0 | 150.9 | 47.2 |
| Hind.Oil Explor. | 31.65 | 65.45 | 91.45 | 133.35 | 106.8 | 39.7 | 45.8 |
| Usha Martin | 14.75 | 16.21 | 27.10 | 39.15 | 9.9 | 67.2 | 44.5 |
| Orient Refrac. | 79.95 | 125.60 | 151.70 | 217.75 | 57.1 | 20.8 | 43.5 |
| Sandur Manganese | 494.25 | 709.10 | 903.60 | 1282.75 | 43.5 | 27.4 | 42.0 |
| JSW Steel | 87.37 | 165.81 | 258.65 | 351.3 | 89.8 | 56.0 | 35.8 |
| KSE | 572.50 | 690.00 | 1685.00 | 2250 | 20.5 | 144.2 | 33.5 |
| Jamna Auto Inds. | 23.67 | 45.14 | 57.85 | 77.2 | 90.7 | 28.2 | 33.4 |
| Sterling Tools | 87.76 | 196.43 | 261.00 | 343.15 | 123.8 | 32.9 | 31.5 |
| Garware Tech. | 349.50 | 550.50 | 895.85 | 1151.6 | 57.5 | 62.7 | 28.5 |
| Info Edg.(India) | 733.80 | 898.55 | 1106.60 | 1422 | 22.5 | 23.2 | 28.5 |
| Deepak Nitrite | 63.90 | 112.00 | 211.95 | 272.25 | 75.3 | 89.2 | 28.5 |
| Muthoot Cap.Serv | 136.18 | 282.18 | 663.65 | 841.35 | 107.2 | 135.2 | 26.8 |
| Shivalik Bimetal | 9.60 | 18.50 | 77.00 | 97.2 | 92.7 | 316.2 | 26.2 |
| Bajaj Fin. | 532.27 | 1072.95 | 1869.20 | 2351.95 | 101.6 | 74.2 | 25.8 |
| Alkyl Amines | 295.00 | 339.70 | 557.25 | 700 | 15.2 | 64.0 | 25.6 |
| Steel Str. Wheel | 363.50 | 656.70 | 885.15 | 1099.6 | 80.7 | 34.8 | 24.2 |
| Phillips Carbon | 24.28 | 55.26 | 182.84 | 226.1 | 127.6 | 230.9 | 23.7 |
| Britannia Inds. | 3032.25 | 3306.30 | 4674.95 | 5720.65 | 9.0 | 41.4 | 22.4 |
| Minda Inds. | 48.42 | 120.72 | 278.31 | 339.95 | 149.3 | 130.5 | 22.1 |
| Bajaj Electrical | 233.70 | 259.65 | 418.30 | 509.45 | 11.1 | 61.1 | 21.8 |
| Filatex India | 7.62 | 16.66 | 38.74 | 47.1 | 118.6 | 132.5 | 21.6 |
| Reliance Inds. | 460.98 | 526.75 | 913.75 | 1104.55 | 14.3 | 73.5 | 20.9 |
| Talbros Auto. | 112.70 | 156.00 | 199.05 | 239 | 38.4 | 27.6 | 20.1 |
| Shemaroo Entert. | 265.10 | 339.60 | 400.00 | 480.1 | 28.1 | 17.8 | 20.0 |
| JSW Holdings | 955.55 | 1227.10 | 1904.20 | 2285 | 28.4 | 55.2 | 20.0 |
| Sasken Technol. | 293.90 | 407.95 | 565.55 | 677 | 38.8 | 38.6 | 19.7 |
| Havells India | 258.65 | 406.40 | 545.10 | 649.6 | 57.1 | 34.1 | 19.2 |
| Apcotex Industri | 224.80 | 368.65 | 466.90 | 547.8 | 64.0 | 26.7 | 17.3 |
| KEI Inds. | 104.20 | 117.60 | 323.05 | 377.2 | 12.9 | 174.7 | 16.8 |
| Borosil Glass | 59.29 | 189.47 | 223.21 | 258.8 | 219.6 | 17.8 | 15.9 |
| Windsor Machines | 30.60 | 43.30 | 57.25 | 66.2 | 41.5 | 32.2 | 15.6 |
| GRUH Finance | 124.13 | 167.08 | 254.93 | 294.7 | 34.6 | 52.6 | 15.6 |
| City Union Bank | 71.49 | 123.35 | 144.68 | 166.75 | 72.5 | 17.3 | 15.3 |
| Prec. Wires (I) | 69.50 | 123.60 | 202.35 | 233 | 77.8 | 63.7 | 15.1 |
| GAIL (India) | 158.15 | 243.62 | 327.00 | 375.65 | 54.0 | 34.2 | 14.9 |
| India Glycols | 88.75 | 137.85 | 319.85 | 366.85 | 55.3 | 132.0 | 14.7 |
| Gufic BioScience | 40.90 | 51.50 | 84.10 | 96.3 | 25.9 | 63.3 | 14.5 |
| Balkrishna Inds | 323.98 | 531.60 | 863.43 | 973 | 64.1 | 62.4 | 12.7 |
| Bharat Bijlee | 587.00 | 822.50 | 1102.10 | 1241.65 | 40.1 | 34.0 | 12.7 |
| P & G Hygiene | 5676.85 | 7031.75 | 8628.25 | 9695.75 | 23.9 | 22.7 | 12.4 |
| Subros | 81.50 | 166.00 | 256.55 | 284.5 | 103.7 | 54.5 | 10.9 |
| JTEKT India | 57.65 | 68.85 | 105.30 | 115.45 | 19.4 | 52.9 | 9.6 |
| Godrej Consumer | 439.22 | 535.35 | 642.20 | 697.8 | 21.9 | 20.0 | 8.7 |
| LTP : Last traded price on November 6, 2018 at 11:00 AM | |||||||