The ruling BJP in Madhya Pradesh may face a challenge in its key bastion, when the State goes to the polls on November 28, as there are clear signs of the anti-incumbency factor against a party that has been in power for 15 years now.
The contest is crucial for the BJP, not just to retain power in the 230-member Assembly but also to be able to head to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with a distinct psychological advantage. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, three States going to the polls together, had after all played a big role in ushering in Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister through the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress, however, would want to upset the BJP in these bastions not only to throw open the Lok Sabha polls but also to increase the number of States in its kitty.
The BJP, which is grappling with visible anger among farmers, can, however, take heart from an active party machinery and a clear chief ministerial candidate.
And while the Congress lacks the former and has opted not to project any of its State leaders as a potential Chief Minister for now, the contest still remains wide open.
Farm issues
The Congress hopes to capitalise on the farm unrest in the largely agrarian State. Party chief Rahul Gandhi chose to begin his campaign from Mandsaur, the epicentre after six farmers were killed in police firing in June 2017 when they were demanding better prices for their produce and a special package.
“Farm unrest is going to be a key factor in these polls,” says Delhi-based political analyst and author Sajjan Kumar, who travelled through the State earlier this year. “One finds it across the State,” he added.
“The Chouhan government has also faced corruption charges, with many seeing the Vyapam scam [one related to irregularities in government recruitment and admission] as unprecedented in scale,” said a local Congress leader, who did not wish to be identified.
The Opposition party is taking heart from the fact that it stunned the ruling BJP by winning nine out of the 14 civic bypolls in August.
Its key handicap, however, may be the lack of a designated chief ministerial candidate, especially in times when personalities have become crucial to politics. While it has well-known leaders in Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, the Congress has consciously refrained from projecting a face.
“One does not know why the Congress has not projected Scindia, who is young and articulate,” says political scientist Sudha Pai. “However, it remains to be seen whether the lack of a leader will matter. Even the BJP has contested some polls without a leader.”
One problem in leader projection, party insiders say, is the risk of possible infighting within its ranks; something that the Congress clearly wants to avoid before the polls.
The absence of a rival contender from the Congress, allows the BJP a chance to project Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the tallest leader in M.P. In 2005, he replaced Babulal Gaur — the successor to the firebrand former CM Uma Bharti — and has never looked back.
His signature social schemes such as the Ladli Lakshmi Yojana, seen as one empowering girls, earned him the nickname “mama” (maternal uncle), which the party’s campaign has leveraged to the hilt when referring to him in every election since. However, the corruption charges against the government may have stolen some of his sheen.
Missed alliance
The BJP can take heart from the fact that the Congress could not strike a deal with the Bahujan Samaj Party in the State. While the BSP has been a marginal player in M.P., an alliance could have cemented almost the entire Dalit vote for the Congress. As of now, even a small share of Dalit votes going to the BSP will make the BJP happy and only dent the Congress’s prospects.
RSS factor
This apart, as Professor Pai says, the RSS has traditionally had a strong influence in M.P. However, there is one thing that the BJP will be watching closely: the possible electoral impact of the Centre’s reversal, through legislation, of the procedures laid down by the Supreme Court to the application of the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. While M.P. does not have complex caste equations as in Uttar Pradesh or Bihar, it has a large upper caste presence of more than a fifth of its population. The moot question is whether the upper castes — traditional supporters of the BJP — would display any change in their voting behaviour as a fallout to the Centre’s decision on the SC/ST act.
Time alone can tell.