Samvat 2074 turned out to be a volatile period for the markets amid a bevy of headwinds – both local and global. Rate hikes, trade war fears, FII outflows, worsening macros (twin deficits – fiscal and current), surge in crude prices, fall in rupee, confusion over long-term capital gains tax among the Budget proposals and the IL&FS crisis were among the key factors that impacted sentiment.
Graphite manufacturer HEG has emerged as the top gainer in the BSE 500 index as the stock moved up 237 per cent during the period. L&T Infotech (118 per cent), L&T Technology Services (115 per cent), Graphite India (109 per cent) and NIIT Technologies (100 per cent) were among the others that made it to the list of chartbusters that gave over 100 per cent return. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex gained a modest 5.7 per cent during Samvat 2074 while NSE's Nifty50 index has gained around 2 per cent.
HEG and Graphite India have benefited from China’s pollution control measures, as well as government’s pledge to electrify villages. China has tightened emission norms that spurred steel production from electric arc furnaces, which use graphite electrodes to process steel from scrap. With supplies also constrained, graphite electrode producer HEG’s stock has surged over 2,650 per cent since January 2017. Graphite India's shares have risen around 1,220 per cent during the window.
Sonata Software (96 per cent), Intellect Design Arena (91 per cent), Radico Khaitan (86 per cent), Abbott India (81 per cent) and KPIT Technologies (73 per cent) are some of the other gainers on the list.
| Company Name | Closing price (Oct 31, 2018) | Closing price (Oct 18, 2017) | % change |
| HEG Ltd. | 4264.10 | 1264.10 | 237.32 |
| Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd. | 1762.45 | 807.30 | 118.31 |
| L&T Technology Services Ltd. | 1702.60 | 792.40 | 114.87 |
| Graphite India Ltd. | 953.05 | 455.35 | 109.30 |
| NIIT Technologies Ltd. | 1227.15 | 613.70 | 99.96 |
| Sonata Software Ltd. | 308.20 | 157.30 | 95.93 |
| Intellect Design Arena Ltd. | 250.80 | 131.05 | 91.38 |
| Radico Khaitan Ltd. | 392.90 | 211.80 | 85.51 |
| Abbott India Ltd. | 7541.40 | 4157.00 | 81.41 |
| KPIT Technologies Ltd. | 221.55 | 127.70 | 73.49 |
On the other hand, Kwality emerged as the biggest wealth destroyer, slipping around 94 per cent during the period, followed by 8K Miles Software Services (87 per cent), PC Jeweller (84 per cent), Manpasand Beverages (80 per cent) and Infibeam Avenues (76 per cent).
| Company Name | Closing price (Oct 31, 2018) | Closing price (Oct 18, 2017) | % change |
| Kwality Ltd. | 6.39 | 100.40 | -93.64 |
| 8K Miles Software Services Ltd. | 67.05 | 501.70 | -86.64 |
| PC Jeweller Ltd. | 58.50 | 367.40 | -84.08 |
| Manpasand Beverages Ltd. | 87.05 | 443.35 | -80.37 |
| Infibeam Avenues Ltd. | 32.25 | 131.75 | -75.52 |
| IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. | 19.60 | 77.35 | -74.66 |
| Reliance Naval and Engineering Ltd. | 12.98 | 51.05 | -74.57 |
| SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd. | 32.95 | 116.75 | -71.78 |
| Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. | 6.40 | 18.90 | -66.14 |
| BEML Ltd. | 587.40 | 1732.45 | -66.09 |
Sectoral snapshot
Sector-wise, the sliding rupee that hit a record low of 74.48 against the US dollar aided the rally in the information technology pack. The Nifty IT index gained 37 per cent during Samvat 2074. Among individual stocks, Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro gained 49 per cent – 12 per cent during this period.
The fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) stocks have emerged as the second best gainer, with the Nifty FMCG index rising over 11 per cent. It has been followed by Nifty Finance (up 6 per cent), Nifty Bank (up over 3 per cent) and Nifty Private Bank (up 3 per cent).
| Company Name | Closing price (Oct 31, 2018) | Closing price (Oct 18, 2017) | % change |
| NIFTY IT | 14940.10 | 10910.15 | 36.94 |
| NIFTY FMCG | 28547.10 | 25684.05 | 11.15 |
| NIFTY FINANCE | 10639.95 | 10034.65 | 6.03 |
| NIFTY BANK | 25153.25 | 24313.75 | 3.45 |
| NIFTY PVT BANK | 14206.65 | 13746.10 | 3.35 |
| NIFTY 50 | 10386.60 | 10210.85 | 1.72 |
| NIFTY PHARMA | 9757.50 | 9622.60 | 1.40 |
| NIFTY PSU BANK | 2915.85 | 2962.30 | -1.57 |
| NIFTY ENERGY | 13753.35 | 14093.85 | -2.42 |
| NIFTY INFRA | 2969.90 | 3412.50 | -12.97 |
| NIFTY METAL | 3296.95 | 3853.70 | -14.45 |
| NIFTY MEDIA | 2489.40 | 2953.80 | -15.72 |
| NIFTY AUTO | 8820.55 | 11167.85 | -21.02 |
| NIFTY REALTY | 214.90 | 287.95 | -25.37 |
Analysts remain bullish on IT, consumption, private banks, steel, auto and pharma companies. Small-caps are likely to remain subdued, while high quality midcaps with healthy earnings growth will continue to outperform.
Siddhartha Sedani, a fundamental analyst at Anand Rathi Financial Services, is bullish on Asian Paints (target price Rs 1,471), HDFC Bank (target price Rs 2,420), L&T Technology Services (target price Rs 2,042) and JSW Steel (target price Rs 406).