UK power grid could run solely on green power and nuclear during the summer months, but gas and storage will be needed in winter, according to new analysis
The UK power market will be able to withstand huge volumes of new renewable generation coming on line according to new research, which suggests the country could be running solely on zero carbon power during the summer months by 2050.
The paper, released today by Aurora Energy Research, explores what happens to the UK power market as it transitions to a high level of renewable power.
Aurora modelled a 2050 scenario where power demand has risen by two-thirds from today, thanks to the rise of EVs, and the grid now boasts 130GW of nuclear, wind and solar generation capacity.
Low power demand and a seasonal spike in renewables generation could effectively lead to zero-carbon summers for the UK electricity grid under this scenario, according to Aurora.
But such large volumes of renewable power would also "fundamentally alter" the workings of the power market, with price crashes in the summer months as green power generation soars.
The price of power in the summer months would drop to below £10 per MWh much of the time, but would soar to £60 per MWh during the winter months, when the grid will need to call on gas and energy storage to meet demand.
Such a scenario will lead to profits for gas and renewables plants made during primarily the winter months, Aurora said. But new build renewables will either have to deliver further cost reductions of up to 85 per cent or retain some form of government subsidy to thrive in such a volatile market environment.
"Tripling Great Britain's current low carbon generation capacity in a bid to reach 'net zero' in the power sector is possible, but also challenging," said Weijie Mak, lead GB power expert at Aurora. "The wholesale market will continue to function and provide the majority of revenues for existing assets, especially in winter months when wholesale prices are high. New assets will however, be increasingly reliant on capacity market payments for economic viability. To integrate a large buildout of renewables at minimal cost, regulators should aim for a harmonised policy across all technologies."