The last time the state witnessed such a contest was in 2003, the year BJP wrested power away from the Congress
Much like other states, the political intrigue in Chhattisgarh has been building up as the assembly elections approach.
However, more than the other states going to polls in November-December, Chhattisgarh has arguably attracted more attention. This is due to the entry of a the third front — led by former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati.
Observers have stated that Jogi might harm both the Congress and the BJP's voting equations equally, to the extent that both parties are now considering the third front as one of the major factors in a state that has seen neck-and-neck contest almost every election. Jogi, experts feel, might do himself good in case of a hung Chhattisgarh assembly.
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What the Jogi-Mayawati combo achieves in terms of the seats will become clear only on December 11, the counting day. What it has managed to achieve for now is its entry into the fray as a genuine third front with an added regional outfit advantage. The last time the state witnessed such a contest was in 2003, the year BJP wrested power from Congress.
The story of the 2003 third front
Incidentally, the players in the fray did not differ much then than now. Ajit Jogi was contesting as a towering Congress leader, just out of a chief ministerial stint. Jogi's rise then in Congress had ruffled many feathers, including senior Congress leader VC Shukla.
Shukla was an influential leader, especially in the undivided Madhya Pradesh. He was the I&B minister during the Emergency but had, over the years, held various portfolios, including home, defence, finance and external affairs. When Chhattisgarh was formed, he expected to be the Congress' chief ministerial choice. Jogi, however, beat him to it. A bitter Shukla floated his own party, which he eventually merged with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
It was on this background that the 2003 elections were fought. Raman Singh, fresh out of his assignment as a central minister, was taking on Jogi and Jogi, in his turn, was trying to take on both Shukla and Singh.
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The NCP had managed to eat into the Congress vote bank then. Of the 90-member assembly, Congress had won 37 seats and the BJP had won 49. Shukla's NCP managed to win just one seat, but it secured a good seven percent vote share. Of the 49 seats that the BJP managed to win, according to a CSDS report, NCP's votes were higher than the BJP's victory margin with regards to Congress in over 12 seats. This means that apart from eating into Congress' voter base, NCP had also managed to attract the floating voters.
Meanwhile, the BSP had managed to win 2 seats and poll 4.4 percent vote share. According to a report in The Hindu, BSP's votes in the Bilaspur region had cost the Congress as many as six seats.
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Scenario today
After BJP's victory in 2003, the saffron party has managed to retain the state two more times. But a lot has changed in so far as the opposition is concerned. Shukla, for one, has left NCP and joined the BJP, abounding it and joining Congress again. He died in a Maoist attack in 2013.
Jogi quit Congress and floated his own party, which is in alliance with the BSP now. That, observers feel, might have the ability to stagger traditional and floating voters for both the BJP and Congress, and could prove fatal for both the parties in a state which has always witnessed a close contest.
Jogi is known to have a considerable sway over the Satnami community, which has a dominant presence in 10 tribal seats in the state. Nine out of these 10 seats are being held by the BJP. Experts feel that in a scenario where the BJP is trying to retain its tribal voter base, Jogi's influence would be a major factor.Assembly Elections 2018: Read the latest news, views and analysis here
