There is a constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka implications of which extend far beyond its borders. The manner in which President Maithripala Sirisena sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, replacing him with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa last Friday, reeked of a palace coup. Sirisena had reneged on the sitting prime minister to install Rajapaksa as prime minister, thus openly defying parliament. Though belonging to different parties, Sirisena and Wicremesinghe had joined hands to keep Rajapaksa out of power three years ago.
But Sirisena, who was a member of the Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Freedom Party, had, of late, been mending fences with the former president, particularly after Rajapaksa swept the municipal polls earlier this year. But the Constitution did not empower the President to dismiss a popularly elected government. The fact is that Sirisena and Wickremesinghe had been drifting apart for sometime but when Rajapaksa’s party swept the recent municipal polls, Sirisena sought political insurance for self and his faction by stitching up an unholy alliance with the former president.
Meanwhile, Wickremesinghe vehemently protested his illegal dismissal, claiming that he still enjoyed majority in Parliament. But, a day after sacking the prime minister, Sirisena suspended Parliament, thus further deepening the crisis. However, within twenty-four hours, Parliament’s Speaker Karu Jayasuriya wrote to Sirisena, stating that Wickremesinghe continued to be the prime minister and questioned the President’s decision to suspend the House. The Speaker warned that the suspension of the House would have ‘serious and undesirable’ consequences for the country.
Further, the Speaker asserted that Wickremesinghe continued to enjoy the popular mandate and his privileges as the leader of the government ought to be restored immediately. More importantly, Jayasuriya told the President that the prorogation of the House cannot be done without prior consultation with the Speaker.
The Speaker also drew the President’s attention to the forcible grab of State institutions by Rajapaksa’s supporters after the latter was illegally appointed prime minister. The resulting confusion helps Rajapaksa who is keen on a fresh election, believing that he has won back the trust of a majority of the people who had rejected him three years ago following credible reports of autocratic behaviour and corruption. Given the fissures in the ruling coalition, with the Sirisena faction going back to Rajapaksa, Wickremesinghe’s United National Party has lost much ground. The majority Sinhala vote has virtually returned to Rajapaksa , thus giving him a clean sweep in the local bodies election.
However, there is a legal road block against early elections. Sri Lankan Constitution prescribes that either two-thirds of the members of the House must approve its dissolution or four and a half years must have elapsed since the last election. Neither condition is met by the Sirisena-Rajapaksa faction, thus making their actions in the last couple of days unconstitutional. How the events will shape in Colombo in the next few days is hard to say but the fact that China has virtually accorded recognition to Rajapaksa as the new prime minister reveals the hidden hand behind the unprecedented developments.
Given that both India and China have deep geo-political interests in the island nation, with Rajapaksa and many of his aides being openly accused of having sold themselves to the Chinese, the real catalyst for the destabilisation of the popularly elected government might well have been the Chinese money power. India cannot match the project finance provided by the Chinese, though not unlike many other countries, particularly in Africa, where China has splashed its billions on project development, local populations have come to resent their attempts at hegemonic controls.
The Wickremesinghe Government, admittedly, was watchful of the growing Chinese influence in the political and economic life of Sri Lanka, while the dominant group in the SLFP was in bed with the Chinese economic interests. This was cited as one of the key factors for the sharp differences between Sirisena and Wicremesinghe. Regardless of the events in the next few days, it does seem that Rajapaksa is back in the reckoning in Sri Lanka.
This is neither good for the people of Sri Lanka, nor, for that matter, does it augur well for the island nation’s relations with India. Though Rajapaksa was in India a few weeks ago, meeting the prime minister and other government figures, his pro-China tilt is hard to correct, particularly after the way he was won over by them during his previous stint in power.