Britain faces pre-Brexit budget battle

AFP  |  London 

Britain's minister will try to navigate a political minefield Monday when he unveils a budget that could be scuppered by the final terms of next year.

and remain locked in negotiations and it is still uncertain whether can get an eventual deal with the EU backed by lawmakers.

The spending plan that emerges from Hammond's red briefcase will be studied warily by May's ruling coalition partners from Northern Ireland's

The small group is a kingmaker that could yet sink both the draft agreement with and May's government in protest over the emerging outlines of a deal.

This level of uncertainty forced Hammond to admit Sunday that "frankly, we'd need to have a new budget that sets out a different strategy" should negotiations fail to salvage an agreement between all sides. He also pledged to keep "fiscal buffers" in place to handle any scenario.

But Hammond argues that a is both possible and likely to bring a "dividend" that gives a boost to lagging economic growth.

"Of course we can never know until we have actually done the deal, but everything tells me that it is very much in the interest not only of the UK but also of the EU," he told the on Sunday.

"Everything I hear tells me that the 27 member states want a deal done with the UK."

Hammond's hand is boosted by Britain's resilient economic health. Growth rates have slowed since the 2016 referendum but the 2018-19 fiscal year deficit could come in under the projected 1.8 per cent of GDP.

Britain is reaping the rewards of a strict diet of austerity measures that curbed spending and raised taxes in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Many of these policies already underpin the budget and do not have to be explicitly announced on Monday.

This leaves Hammond free to work in line with May's announcement at her annual party conference this month that the era of austerity was over and the "hard work has paid off".

He has already announced 900 million pounds (USD 1.2 million, 1.0 billion euros) in relief for the yearly fees small store owners pay on their Billions more are being earmarked for roads and mental health funding.

But Hammond has also hinted that some taxes could still rise in the future. The only one he has backed publicly is one on the UK revenues of and such as and

Hammond is bound by his government's contradictory commitments to achieve a balanced budget by the mid-2020s while gradually increasing spending for popular social programmes.

He said Sunday that he was choosing "a balanced approach which places an equal weight on getting the debt down, keeping taxes low, supporting public services, and investing" in infrastructure development.

The extra funding would help undercut May's rivals in Labour ahead of elections that are to take place no later than 2022.

Yet researchers at for Fiscal Studies said the best Hammond could do politically was postpone the announcement of unpopular measures until a future date.

"There's no way Hammond can end austerity and balance the books," the think-tank said.

"It might prove to be delayed rather than avoided.

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, October 29 2018. 11:55 IST