In our Pick of the Day, we take a look at what role anti-incumbency may be playing in the three big states where we are set to witness a head-to-head battle between the BJP and the Congress.
Toto, we are not in 2018 anymore. We are in a pre-general-election year, and very firmly in state assembly polls year. Only recently, we discussed the state of five states going into elections this coming November-December.
In our Pick of the Day, we take a look at what role anti-incumbency may be playing in the three big states where we are set to witness a head-to-head battle between the BJP and the Congress. Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh have had BJP rule for the past fifteen years, and Rajasthan for five years now. An early opinion poll seems to suggest the tide is turning in favour of the Congress in all these three states.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to deny tickets to many sitting Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the two states it had swept in 2013 but where it is now facing a renewed challenge from the Congress in a bid to stave off any anti-incumbency in the assembly polls, party sources said.
They said the party might also not give tickets to three more sitting MLAs in Chhattisgarh, where it is yet to name candidates for 13 seats including four held by it. The party has already denied tickets to 14 of the 49 legislators who had won last time around. The sources also played down surveys predicting an edge for the Congress in Rajasthan, and asserted that there may have been some "communication gap" within the party earlier but things have changed.
"We will come to power in all three states," a party leader claimed. Though he did not elaborate on the likely number of MLAs the party may not field in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, he said such a decision would be based on feedback from the organisation and independent assessment carried out by the party.
Political observers say denying tickets to the MLAs seen to be unpopular in their constituencies may help the party placate voters to some extent. BJP sources said Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan remains a popular leader and the first choice of the state's voters for the top post. "In such a scenario when the main face of the government is popular, any so called anti-incumbency can be effectively countered with some measures, including dropping unpopular MLAs," they said.
The BJP, especially after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and its president Amit Shah's ascent to leadership, has relied on intensive fieldwork to select its candidates. It has not shied away from dropping any incumbent lawmaker, who, it believes, may have become a liability or whose replacement has a better prospect at the hustings.
In the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly and 200-member Rajasthan assembly, the BJP had won 165 and 163 seats respectively in the 2013 polls. The party has been in power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, whose assembly has 90 members, since 2003, while Rajasthan has seen BJP rule for five years now.
Up to 25 percent tickets can be changed by the BJP for the upcoming Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, senior party leader and Cabinet minister Brijmohan Agrawal said Thursday, asserting there is no anti-incumbency against the Raman Singh-led government in the state.
Debunking suggestions of differences between him and Singh, he said there may be some differences on certain issues but there are no hard feelings between them.
"There is no infighting in the party. I have very cordial relations with the chief minister. There are no hard feelings between us, may be approach is different on some issues," Agrawal said. He added, "Twenty-five per cent tickets are likely to be changed in the BJP. I am sure when tickets are changed then people will again be with the BJP. People may be angry with some individuals for different personal reasons but they are not anti-BJP."
Polls for 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly are due this year-end. Agrawal made light of the recent tie-up between Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and Mayawati's BSP, saying it would not hurt the BJP, which has its voters intact, but would be detrimental to the Congress.
"If the BSP and Jogi fight elections together, then it is very beneficial for the BJP. The party has got its own support base and voters. Our vote bank is intact. People from all castes and creed are with the BJP due to different development works done by us. We will surely get more votes this time too and form the government," Agrawal said.
On Ajit Jogi, he said, "He (Jogi) is the B team of the Congress. Congress apni bala taalne ke liye aisi koshish karti hai' (Congress say this to get rid of its own problem). In reality, he (Jogi) is Congress' B team.”
Citing the dual party system in Chhattisgarh and neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, he said the main fight, if at all that happens, in the Assembly polls will only be between the BJP and the Congress.
"Jogi will only divide some votes. But he won't be able to take away any result-oriented votes," said Agrawal, who holds the charge of the water resources department, agriculture and biotechnology, animal husbandry and fisheries among others.
Agrawal said elections in the state will be fought in the name of Singh and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "It is known to everyone now that elections will be fought in the name of Raman Singh and the prime minister. But what will happen in the time to come, (about the CM's face), that will be decided by the party. And whatever party decides, everyone will have agree to it," Agrawal said.
He, however, said the BJP is a disciplined party and everyone gets what they deserve. "I have never asked anything from the party. It decides everything after analysing eligibility of individuals," he said. Agrawal said he was confident the BJP would form its government for the fourth consecutive term in the state.
Nachiket Deuskar, writing for Moneycontrol, talks about the ‘Heart of Hindustan,’ Madhya Pradesh. Madhya Pradesh is gearing up to elect a new Assembly in November. It is expected to be a heated contest between the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress.
The BJP government led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is facing a tide of anti-incumbency after being in power for 15 years. Chouhan has been at the helm of affairs for 13 of those years. Madhya Pradesh will vote in a single phase election on November 28. The tenure of the current Assembly is slated to end on January 7, 2019. The counting will take place on the 11th of December.
The recent political history of MP has seen only two parties – BJP and Congress – duke it out. Except for two brief Janata Party and Samyukta Vidhayak Dal governments, elections in Madhya Pradesh have largely been a binary contest between the two.
The BJP has been central in the state’s politics ever since it first came to power in 1990. Madhya Pradesh was one of the first states where BJP came to power. The saffron party’s grip over the state has only tightened over time. The Congress governed Madhya Pradesh from November 1, 1956, when the state was formed, to 1967. After a Samyukta Vidhayak Dal government that lasted around a year and a half, Congress regained power and continued till 1977.
The state’s sixth Assembly witnessed three chief ministers from the Janata Party in less than three years (1977-1980). Between 1980 and 1990, Congress’ Arjun Singh and Motilal Vohra became the chief minister twice each. Digvijaya Singh then served as the chief minister for two terms between 1993 and 2003.
Critics have often attributed BJP’s subsequent success in the state to a “forgettable” tenure by Singh. Congress has remained out of power in the state since 2003. In the last three Assembly polls, BJP has commanded a vote share higher than the Congress.
In 2013, BJP had a vote share of 44.88 percent across the state while the Congress came second with 36.38 percent of the votes. BSP and the SP picked up 6.29 percent and 1.20 percent of the votes respectively. GGP polled 5.38 percent of the votes.
Independent candidates picked up a total of 1.90 percent of the votes across the state. None of the Above (NOTA) option, which was introduced ahead of the polls was opted by 1.90 percent voters in the state. The vote share translated into BJP winning 165 seats while the Congress bagged 58 seats. BSP had won four seats while independent candidates clinched three seats. BJP’s vote share significantly rose from what was 37.64 percent in 2008.
In the 2008 polls, a swing of votes had benefitted the Congress, which although finished second, garnered a vote share of 32.39 percent. The 2008 polls were the first for BJP under Chouhan’s stewardship. The same year, the BSP registered its best performance in recent times with a vote share of just under 9 percent.
The SP and GGP picked up around 2 percent and 1.69 percent of the votes respectively. Independent candidates together polled 8.23 percent of the votes, across the states. The numbers suggest that in the 2008 assembly polls, BSP, SP, GGP and the independent candidates had gained at the expense of both the BJP and the Congress.
Five years earlier, in the 2003 assembly polls, the performance of political parties was similar to what was witnessed in 2013. BJP, riding on an anti-incumbency wave against then Congress chief minister Digvijaya Singh, received a 42.50 percent votes share. Congress managed to secure 31.61 percent votes.
This was followed by 7.26 percent votes for the BSP and 3.71 percent votes for the SP. The GGP, having contested 61 seats, managed to receive little over 7 percent of the votes. Independent candidates won a total of 7.70 percent votes across the states.
With the majority-mark in the 230 member assembly being 116, Congress would require a vote swing of at least five percent in their favour to win the election, a report by NDTV suggests. Mayawati-led BSP’s decision to contest separately may also impact the Congress.
The BSP has an influence in around 41 seats of the state, including a very strong influence in at least 13 seats in the Gwalior-Chambal region. The region has also attained importance as the epicentre of the Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) protests in the state.
Opinion polls have predicted a tough battle between the Congress and the BJP. Some surveys indicate that other parties, including the BSP could also clinch few seats and play a possible ‘king maker’.
In Rajasthan, the current incumbent Vasundhara Raje is wrapped up in palace intrigue and perceived iniquities. According to one opinion poll, she is no longer the favourite candidate to be the CM – that position is occupied on the polls by Sachin Pilot, State President of the Congress in Rajasthan. The poll also predicts the tide turning strongly in favour of the Congress in terms of seat wins.
Firstpost notes, “There are clear signs of the BJP’s discomfort everywhere: Its headquarters in Jaipur is deserted, the cadre is missing from the ground and central leadership is making every effort to create the impression that apart from Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, many other state leaders would be part of the candidate selection process. Two MPs—Arjun Ram Meghwal and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat—have emerged as power centres.
There are many theories about Raje’s perceived loss of popularity. One is that she became a victim of the perception that she doesn’t have a good equation with Modi and BJP president Amit Shah. This may or may not be true, but hardcore Modi supporters do not have the kind of trust in her they repose in other BJP chief ministers.”
The trio of perceived lack of closeness with Shah and Modi, an “inability to get things moving on the ground”, and a perceived aloofness with party workers and the general public are hurting Raje.
Rajasthan’s voters tend to favour the party they voted for in the Assembly elections in the general elections as well. Considering the very real anti-incumbency Raje is facing, should the BJP be booted out in the assembly polls, will it hurt Modi in the general elections, is the big question.
The Modi-love the state showed in 2014 was overwhelming – the BJP swept the state in the Lok Sabha polls winning every single seat there. Is that love not – disappointment in the state CM notwithstanding – is the question.
It’s time for Modi to ask that all-important question to Rajasthan’s voters: How deep is your love?
Rajasthan votes on December 7.Assembly Elections 2018: Read the latest news, views and analysis here
