
Live: SGX Nifty Slips 1% Amid Global Market Rout; IndiGo, Maruti, Yes Bank In Focus
IndianOpen Live: Trading Strategies, Brokerage Calls, Key Management Highlights And Much More!
Money Market Update: Rupee Seen Opening Lower At 73.39/$
The rupee may drop in line with Asian peers as a global stock rout is set to hurt local equities.
Risk sentiment soured considerably overnight with global stocks poised for their worst month in more than six years as the effects of trade tensions, geopolitics and rising Federal Reserve interest rates begin to bite.
The implied opening from forwards may see spot rupee start trading from 73.39 per dollar, having ended stronger on Wednesday at 73.1550.
Meanwhile, in the bond market, traders will await the RBI's open market bond purchases.
The RBI’s efforts to defend the rupee in recent weeks spells good news for the bond market, analysts say with the intervention coming at a time when the banking system is reeling from a cash crunch.
The steady intervention could lead to more debt purchases by the RBI to replenish liquidity. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell 2 basis points to 7.87 percent with lower crude oil helping sentiment towards bonds.
Trade Setup: F&O Cues, Stocks In Trading Ban And More
F&O Cues
- Nifty October Futures closed trading at 10228, premium of 4 pen interest.
- Nifty October open interest down 30 percent; Nifty Bank October open interest down 28 percent.
- Max open interest for October series at 11,000 strike value call option (open interest at 33.2 lakh shares).
- Max open interest for October series at 10,000 strike value put option (Open interest at 42.6 lakh shares).
- Nifty Rollovers at 65 percent.
- Nifty Bank Rollovers at 53 percent.
Stocks In F&O Ban
- Adani Enterprises
- Adani Power
- DHFL
Put Call Ratio
- Nifty PCR at 1.1 from 1.04.
- Nifty Bank PCR at 0.82 from 0.79.
How To Trade Bajaj Auto, InterGlobe, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Wipro Post Q2 Earnings
On Kotak Mahindra Bank
JPMorgan
- Maintained ‘Overweight’ with a price target of Rs 1,400, implying a potential upside of 19 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter review: Earnings beat driven by subsidiary performance.
- Deposit franchise continues to show strong traction.
- No clarity given on way forward for reducing promoter stake.
CLSA
- Upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 1,420 from Rs 1,480, implying a potential upside of 21 percent from the last regular trade.
- Healthy growth in core profits, but investment provisions drag.
- Strong CASA and capitalisation to aid share gains.
- Expect pick-up in earnings growth; Valuations reasonable for Buy.
On Wipro
CLSA
- Maintained ‘Sell’ with a price target of Rs 300, implying a potential downside of 3 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter review: Sharp margin beat, in-line revenue and soft guidance.
- Digital strong and client mining volatile.
- Consistency on growth and margin missing over the past few years.
Morgan Stanley
- Maintained ‘Underweight’ with a price target of Rs 300, implying a potential downside of 3 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter’s performance better than expectations
- Revenue growth was broad based with four verticals growing 4 percent on a sequential basis.
- Net income was hit due to the impact from one time settlement charges.
On Bajaj Auto
Morgan Stanley
- Maintain Equal-weight with a price target of Rs 2,845, implying a potential upside of 15 percent from the last regular trade.
- Strong volumes but margin compression continues.
- Focus on market share led margins to slip.
- Gains from weaker rupee may not translate to better earnings as sector is facing some headwinds.
Deutsche Bank
- Maintained ‘Hold’; cut price target to Rs 2,700 from Rs 3,000, implying a potential upside of 9 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter’s operating results came in materially lower than estimates.
- Trading earnings growth for market share.
- Cut EPS estimates by 7-8 percent; Maintain Hold purely due to valuation.
Macquarie
- Maintained ‘Underperform’ with a price target of Rs 2,400, implying a potential downside of 3 percent from the last regular trade.
- Operating profit margin in September quarter fell short of expectation.
- Domestic motorcycle market share improved in September quarter.
- Export growth to continue in the near term.
On InterGlobe Aviation
JPMorgan
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 900.
- Price war drive higher-than-expected loss; Competitive pricing may sustain for couple of quarters.
- Pricing growth may remain elusive until some consolidation takes place.
- See downside risk to earnings estimates; Near term stock may remain under pressure.
Credit Suisse
- Maintained ‘Neutral’; cut price target to Rs 940 from Rs 1,000.
- Results may disappoint market, but are better than expected.
- Remain watchful for continued yield pressure given aggressive capacity addition.
- Cut EPS estimates to factor lower yield, higher crude and weaker rupee.
Edelweiss
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 1,073 from Rs 1,153.
- Yield disappoints; Forex and fuel impact compounds pressure.
- Pricing pressure continues to persist, especially in the highly-profitable business segment.
- Robust passenger growth leading to market share gains.
Motilal Oswal
- Maintained ‘Neutral’ with a price target of Rs 785.
- Ebitdar significantly below estimate due to a lower yield, higher fuel cost and higher operating cost.
- Expect IndiGo to continue facing pricing pressure in the next few quarters.
- Cut 2018-19 estimates on dismal operating performance and likely continuance of the same.
SBICAP
- Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 881.
- See limited visibility on pricing improvement despite seasonally strong December quarter.
- Continued high industry supply in near term amidst rising costs to put pressure on profitability.
- Buy only on improvement in industry pricing scenario which appears remote.
On M&M Financial
JPMorgan
- Maintained ‘Underweight’ with a price target of Rs 420.
- September quarter earnings beat estimates driven by loan growth and credit cost reduction.
- Loan growth surprises positively; Asset quality improves on a sequential basis.
- Second half’s outlook may be challenging and put pressure on profit growth.
Macquarie
- Maintained ‘Neutral’; cut price target to Rs 420 from Rs 465.
- September quarter was strong – net profit ahead and GNPLs reduced.
- Management comfortable on liquidity position; 20 percent loan growth guidance maintained.
- Cut EPS estimates by 8-11 percent to factor higher cost of funds.
On Jubilant Foodworks
Macquarie
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with a price target of Rs 1,600, implying a potential upside of 34 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter’s SSSG growth higher than estimate; Remain confident on demand sustainability.
- Cost pressures related to higher competition is significant but manageable.
- Remains top pick in India consumer.
CLSA
- Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 1,600 from Rs 1,900, implying a potential upside of 34 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter’s results slightly below; SSSG at above 20 percent stays strong.
- Next few quarters could be less predictable on the back of competition.
- Staff costs rose by competitive pressure and these pressures to weigh on cost.
More Brokerage Calls
CLSA on Bharti Infratel
- Maintained ‘Outperform’ with a price target of Rs 290, implying a potential upside of 10 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter results were ahead of estimates.
- Vodafone-Idea drive tenancy exits.
- Cost controls support margins.
Macquarie on Hexaware
- Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 500 from Rs 560, implying a potential upside of 43 percent from the last regular trade.
- September quarter’s operating performance missed marginally due to one-offs in clients.
- Believe bulk of currency gains will be used to address attrition and improving onsite talent supply.
- Deal pipeline remains strong; Expect closing 2018 deal wins at higher value.
CLSA on Zydus Wellness-Heinz India Deal
- Deal negative for Cadila Healthcare, likely EPS dilution of 3-10 percent.
- Await further clarity on the deal structure.
Bulk Deals: Specialty Restaurants, Den Networks
Specialty Restaurants:
- Deepak Bhagnani sells 13.50 lakh shares or 2.9 percent equity at Rs 69 each.
- Tasha Investment Advisors LLP buys 11.6 lakh shares or 2.5 percent equity at Rs 69 each.
Den Networks: MSD India Fund sells 29.94 lakh shares or 1.5 percent equity at Rs 66.77 each.
Earnings Reaction To Watch: Bharti Infratel, InterGlobe Aviation, Wipro, Hexaware
Wipro (Q2, QoQ)
- Revenue up 2.4 percent at Rs 14568 crore.
- Net profit down 9.9 percent at Rs 1886 crore.
- Forex gain of Rs 121.7 crore versus gain of Rs 77.1 crore QoQ
- EBIT down 13.3 percent at Rs 2097 crore.
- EBIT Margins at 14.4 percent versus 17 percent.
InterGlobe Aviation (Q2 ,YoY)
- Revenue up 17 percent at Rs 6185 crore.
- Net loss of Rs 652 crore versus Net profit of Rs 552 crore
- Ebitdar down 93 percent at Rs 111 crore.
- Margin at 1.8 percent versus 29.4 percent.
Hexaware (Q3, QoQ)
- Dollar revenue up 1.7 percent at $171.1 million.
- Revenue up 6 percent at Rs 1210 crore.
- Net profit up 21 percent at Rs 172 crore.
- Ebitda up 18 percent at Rs 187 crore.
- Margin at 15.5 percent versus 14 percent.
Bharat Financial Inclusion (Q2, YoY)
- NII up 95 percent at Rs 519 crore.
- Net profit up 73 percent at Rs 233 crore.
- Gross NPA at 0.4 percent versus 0.3 percent (QoQ)
- Net NPA unchanged at 0.1 percent.
Lakshmi Vilas Bank (Q2, YoY)
- Net Interest Income down 35 percent at Rs 151 crore.
- Net loss of Rs 132 crore versus Net profit of Rs 10.5 crore.
- Provisions up 27 percent at Rs 205 crore (QoQ).
- GNPA at 12.31 percent versus 10.73 percent (QoQ).
- NPA at 6.88 percent versus 5.96 percent (QoQ).
Everest Industries (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 21 percent at Rs 313 crore.
- Net profit up 100 percent at Rs 9 crore.
- Ebitda up 54 percent at Rs 18.5 crore.
- Margin at 5.9 percent versus 4.6 percent.
Indiabulls Real Estate (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 121 percent at Rs 1040 crore.
- Net profit up 23 percent at Rs 76 crore.
- Ebitda down 4 percent at Rs 243 crore.
- Margin at 23.4 percent versus 53.7 percent.
- Finance cost down 47 percent at Rs 104 crore.
Agro Tech Foods (Q2, YoY)
- Revenue up 7 percent at Rs 211 crore.
- Net profit up 6 percent at Rs 9.1 crore.
- Ebitda up 3 percent at Rs 17.5 crore.
- Margin at 8.3 percent versus 8.6 percent.
Bharti Infratel (Q2, QoQ)
- Revenue down 1 percent to Rs 3,648 crore.
- Net profit down 6 percent to Rs 600 crore.
- Ebitda down 1 percent to Rs 1,506 crore.
- Margin at 41.3 percent versus 41.4 percent.
KPIT Tech (Q2, QoQ)
- Revenue up 6 percent at Rs 1079 crore.
- Net profit up 6 percent at Rs 82 crore.
- Ebitda up 19.5 percent at Rs 147 crore.
- Margin at 13.6 percent versus 12.1 percent.
IDFC Bank (Q2, YoY)
- Net Interest Income down 2 percent at Rs 451 crore.
- Net loss of Rs 370 crore versus Net profit of Rs 234 crore.
- Provisions at Rs 601 crore versus Rs 34 crore (QoQ).
- GNPA at 1.63 percent versus 3.24 percent (QoQ).
- NPA at 0.59 percent versus 1.63 percent.
L&T Finance (Q2, YoY)
- Total Income from operations up 25 percent to Rs 3,246 crore.
- Net Profit grew 62 percent to Rs 559 crore.
- Gross NPA at 7.10 percent versus 7.93 percent (QoQ).
- Net NPA at 2.79 percent versus 3.17 percent (QoQ).