Qatar may benefit from Khashoggi fallout: analysts

AFP  |  Doha 

Global diplomatic fallout from the murder of in may help in its political stand-off with the kingdom, experts said.

The killing of -- who was critical of the and its blockade of -- may convince sceptics that Doha's claims of Saudi "aggression" were justified, according to analysts.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the Qataris could indirectly benefit from what's happening right now," said Dr Andreas Krieg, of London and former to

"The Saudis have to make concessions."

For the past 16 months, regional heavyweight -- the only country that shares a land border with -- has led Arab allies in isolating the small,

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and froze all diplomatic ties with Doha, accusing it of cosying up to Riyadh's regional rival and supporting radical Islamist groups, including the

Economic activity between the former allies has practically seized, while Qatari planes have been banned from using Saudi airspace and that of other countries.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and also banned their citizens from travelling to Qatar as part of the boycott.

Doha, which denies the allegations of supporting militant groups and being too close to Iran, accuses its former allies of seeking regime change.

Qatar claims the boycotting nations have split families in the region and says its citizens have been prevented from undertaking the Muslim hajj pilgrimage in

"I think if the wants to end the Qatar crisis it can exert leverage over the Saudis as a in relation to Khashoggi's death," Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, told AFP.

Others remain sceptical.

"It is too early to tell," said Noha Aboueldahab, a visiting fellow at the Center.

"The case has damaged Saudi Arabia's reputation, particularly its so-called 'counter-terrorism' narrative", she said.

But "at this point, the Qatar/Saudi stand-off remains quite low on the priorities list".

Key Gulf allies of backed the kingdom after Khashoggi disappeared on October 2, while Qatar initially maintained a silence that Aboueldahab called "prudent".

only made its first comments three weeks into the affair, calling it "a wake-up call".

Qatar's public line came shortly after Saudi Arabia admitted the died inside the consulate after a "brawl and a fistfight", an account that Britain, and say must be backed by "credible" facts.

Doha was anxious not to be drawn into the crisis, especially as some had speculated that Qatar had a hand in events.

Before admitted Khashoggi died at the hands of Saudis, was aflame with claims Qatar planned the incident, especially as it occurred in Turkey, Doha's staunch ally.

There has also been anger among Saudis over Qatar-based broadcaster Al Jazeera's extensive coverage of the murder, with some claiming it is seeking to inflict maximum embarrassment on the kingdom.

Well before the Khashoggi affair, demanded be closed, as one of its key conditions for terminating the blockade on Qatar.

"I think the world is now seeing what people in the have seen", said Ulrichsen.

"This is a very different Saudi Arabia they are living with" since Crown rose to ascendancy.

The young and ambitious Mohammed was named successor to the throne by his father Salman in June 2017 and has since side lined all his rivals.

But with Riyadh on the back foot over Khashoggi's murder, there are whispers of a rapprochement with Qatar.

There are rumours that Qatar's Emir Sheikh has recently held talks with Saudi

"I wouldn't be surprised that if behind closed doors people are talking," said Krieg.

If so, it would represent a major development since the last known formal Saudi contact with the Qatari leader was in a phone call with Mohammed in September 2017.

And on Wednesday, Prince Mohammed acknowledged at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia that Qatar "has a strong economy", despite "our differences".

Krieg speculated concessions could ultimately mean a deal on airspace, hajj or family reunifications.

"That's solving the crisis for people," he said.

But possible concessions would not herald an end to the Qatar crisis or a return to pre-June 2017 diplomatic relations, analysts said.

Any deal would also have to involve the UAE, but the enmity between it and Qatar seems particularly entrenched.

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Thu, October 25 2018. 09:40 IST