How these states voted in the past, and what is at stake, will be among the talking points on this edition of our Pick of the Day. My name is Rakesh, and you are listening to Moneycontrol.
If 2019 is battle royale and the outcome the ultimate test for Narendra Modi, the upcoming state elections are going to be the curtain-raiser. The Election Commission on Saturday the October 6 announced the schedule for Assembly elections in five states – Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Telangana, Rajasthan, and Mizoram.
In Telangana, TRS, the ruling party, goes against the BJP and the Congress. In Mizoram, Congress fights it out with the state parties in Mizoram. But it is in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, and Rajasthan, where we will see a pre-2019 head-to-head battle take place between the Congress and the BJP. How these states voted in the past, and what is at stake, will be among the talking points on this edition of our Pick of the Day. My name is Rakesh, and you are listening to Moneycontrol.
On October 6, the Election Commission announced dates for assembly polls in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana, effectively setting the stage for a high-stakes battle in these five states, ahead of the Ragnarök of 2019. The run-up to these elections is obviously going to be a (rather enjoyable) series right here on Moneycontrol, but on this first episode focussing on the first set of battles leading up to the great war, we will examine how each of these states is placed, and what is at stake.
1. Mizoram
We start with one of the seven sisters – Mizoram. It might have Ram in its name, but that is just about where its association with the BJP ends. And the BJP wants to change that – not least because Mizoram is the last northeastern state where the party is not in power. According to the 2011 census, 87.16 percent of the population in Mizoram is Christian, and reports indicate that the Mizos still view the BJP with scepticism. But there is also anti-incumbency brewing. The Congress-led government has had to face flak on two accounts – the state of the infrastructure, and the abolition of prohibition. Mizoram’s roads are in a terrible condition, and they have not seen improvement over the two terms that the Congress has enjoyed there.
There are also reports of increased alcohol-related deaths in the state. The Congress lifted the prohibition which existed before. Using these as the platform and challenging the Congress is not so much the BJP but the MNF (Mizo National Front). The Northeastern state has been swinging between Congress and the Mizo National Front (MNF) since 1984 (although with a short President’s rule in 1988).
Two Congress leaders recently quit the party to join the MNF. Dr BD Chakma, former minister and a Chakma tribe leader, has recently quit the Congress to join the BJP.
In the 2008 assembly poll, the Congress won 32 out of the 40 seats with 39 percent voteshare, while the MNF had three seats with 31 percent voteshare. In 2013, the Congress increased both its seat count and the voteshare (34 and 45 percent) while the MNF saw its voteshare decrease to 29 percent but walked away with five seats. In the last Lok Sabha election, Mizoram sent a Congress representative to the parliament – the state’s lone MP.
The BJP is trying to create a dent in this otherwise two-head race. Party President Amit Shah spoke to about 7000 BJP workers in Aizawl and accused the Chief Minister Lal Thanhwala of running “a corrupt and dynastic rule” in the state. He claimed the CM was trying to install his younger brother, currently the health minister, as the next chief minister.
Although a small state with only 7.68 lakh people on the rolls, Mizoram will be an important battlefield for the Congress where the party will test its ability to hold the only post they currently have in the north east.
Mizoram goes to the hustings on the 28th of November, and the results will be announced on December 11
2. Telangana
The freshly minted state will be facing its first ever independent assembly elections this year. When polls took place last in 2014, the state had been carved out from Andhra Pradesh, but not the assembly. In that election, within the Telangana region, Telugu Rashtra Samiti (TRS), the ruling party had won 63 seats, the Congress 21, and the Telugu Desam Party 15. The Assembly has a total of 119 seats. The voteshare among the three parties back in 2014 was 34 percent TRS, 25 percent Congress, and 15 percent TDP.
The caretaker chief minister K Chandrashekhara Rao, also president of the TRS, is hoping to establish the dominance of the party in this first independent assembly election and stay on his throne for his first term as the winning chief minister, rather than mearly caretaker CM. The country’s youngest state was set to go to polls in 2019, but the TRS dissolved the assembly on the September 6, 2018, paving the way for early elections.
TRS is naturally the biggest player in the state currently. The young party, founded in 2001, with a one-point agenda of creating a separate Telangana state has since swelled in its ranks with 63 out of the 119 seats in the Assembly belonging to the party now. Several members from the rival parties have also joined the TRS recently.
Challenging the TRS is Congress-led pre-poll alliance Prajakutami (Grand Alliance). The Congress, eyeing the south Indian state, has formed an electoral alliance with N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS). The grand alliance is another primary contender for the polls.
Then there is the BJP, which had five MLAs in the dissolved assembly, and looks to substantially increase its strength in the polls.
All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM) - Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM exerts considerable influence in areas in and around Hyderabad. As many as 24 constituencies come under the Greater Hyderabad region. At least seven of these seats are considered to be AIMIM bastions.
Rounding up the big party contenders is Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP which has also jumped into the poll arena. The party has announced to field candidates from all 119 seats.
The shenanigans are already in full swing. The Congress-led pre-poll alliance has been in talks ever since a rift on seat-sharing. As per PTI sources in the Congress, the TDP, the CPI and TJS are demanding more seats than their "fair share". The CPI has also indicated that it is mulling the option of contesting independently.
BJP, which is trying to add the state to its basket, has proposed to regulate the sale of liquor in the state, if it comes to power. It has further promised surcharge-free bus fares during festivals, total waiver of tax on petrol and diesel, cheap drinking water and more. The current caretaker CM, KCR, has assured a farm loan waiver of Rs 1 lakh, besides increasing assistance under the Rythu Bandhu (Farmer’s Friend) scheme to Rs 10,000 per annum from the current Rs 8,000 if the TRS was voted to power once again.
What does the scene look like as of now? Well, one opinion poll has the TRS as the firm favourite. The poll, conducted by The Team Flash and VDA Associates, has said TRS will emerge victorious in 85 out of 117 constituencies. Congress will be second with 18 seats, AIMIM seven seats while BJP will only get five seats.
Young Telangana, with its great history and fresh assembly, goes to vote on the 7th of December and vote counting will be on the 11th of December.
3. Chattisgarh
On now to another state that carved itself out from its neighbour – Chattisgarh. Chattisgarh is the only one of the five states to go to the polls in two phases. The current BJP-led government, under Chief Minister Raman Singh, is slated to end on the January 5, 2019. According to at least one opinion poll, that might just be curtains for the BJP in Chattisgarh, for the next term at least. The ABP News – CVoter survey has the Congress emerge victorious in Chattisgarh. Granted, the margin between victory and not, according to the poll, is still very small. In the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly, the poll has the Congress winning in 47.
The head-to-head between the two big parties in Chhattisgarh has been pretty consistent, and pretty intense, in the past two assembly elections. In 2008, the BJP held 50 of the 90 seats with a 40 percent voteshare, while the Congress walked away with 38 seats and 39 percent of the voteshare. 40 percent vs 39 percent! Cut to 2013, the BJP lost one of its 50 seats to settle at 49, while the Congress swelled by one to get to 39 seats. The voteshare between the Congress and the BJP? 41 percent-40 percent! Clearly, Chhattisgarh likes its drama. The BJP did however win the Lok Sabha elections there in dramatic majority. 10 of the 11 seats went to the BJP in 2014 along with 49.7 percent of the votes. The Congress settled for one seat, but did have a 39.1 percent voteshare.
Clearly, this is a battle that the Congress has come too close to win in the past, and if that opinion poll is any indication, something it may just end up doing. And the big guns are already beginning to gleam in the sun. The Congress has already announced the name of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s niece Karuna Shukla as its candidate against current CM Raman Singh for the Rajnandgaon seat. Shukla was a BJP central office bearer until she quit in 2013 after she felt she was sidelined within the party. She joined the Congress in 2014, and has since criticised the saffron party for trying to encash the legacy of Vajpayee after his death in August this year. Rajnandgaon is an area with a sizeable Naxal presence. It is currently held by Raman Singh, who may not have enough time to campaign in his own constituency due to his responsibilities as chief minister. Shukla, also starts off an a losing foot having lost the 2004 election from the Jangjir constituency and the 2009 election from the Korba constituency – both on BJP tickets. The tide did not turn even with a Congress ticket – she lost in the general elections of 2014 when she contested from the Bilaspur constituency on a Congress ticket. This time, Mrs Shukla is expected to invoke the legacy of Mr Vajpayee and slam the CM on issues of farmer welfare and state development.
First phase of polling will happen on November 12 in areas with a strong Naxal prence. The rest of the state will vote on November 20 in the second phase. The counting will take place on the December 11.
4. Madhya Pradesh
Now to the heart of the country – well, name-wise at any rate (Nagpur, as it happens, is the geographical centre of India). Madhya Pradesh. The central Indian state has a total of 230 assembly constituencies. It has had a BJP government since 2003. The tenure of the Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government will conclude on January 7, 2019.
Not surprisingly, the Modi-wave of 2014 swept across MP with BJP swept the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in the state, winning 27 of the 29 seats with a 54.8 percent vote share. Congress, which finished a distant second, managed to pick up the two remaining seats with 35.4 percent of the vote share. BSP secured 3.9 percent of the votes but could not win a seat. The assembly elections have proven to be a slightly happier picture for the Congress. In 2008, the BJP had 143 of the 230 seats with 38 percent voteshare while the Congress managed 71 seats with a 32 percent voteshare. In 2013, saffron only grew stronger with 165 seats and 45 percent of the voteshare, with the Congress shrinking to 58 seats but increasing its voteshare to 36 percent.
The state polls have not been as abysmal as the general election was for the Congress. And here is something for the Congress to celebrate – The ABP News – CVoter survey has the Congress emerge victorious in Madhya Pradesh as well. The survey predicts 122 seats for the Congress in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly and 108 for the BJP. Anti-incumbency notwithstanding, Shivraj Singh Chouhan of the BJP remains the favoured candidate for the chief minister’s spot, according to the poll.
Mr Chouhan is leaving no stone unturned, and is leading the campaign in his state, LED-screens and all. In a bid to reach out to masses in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, the BJP Sunday launched 'Samriddh (Prosperous) Madhya Pradesh' campaign from Bhopal on the October 22 by flagging off 50 hi-tech vehicles designed as, what else, chariots. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar flagged off the chariots, fitted with LED screens, sound systems and other equipment, from the state BJP headquarters in the state capital.
The usual insults have been traded. The CM accused the Congress of pushing the state into poverty and keeping it firmly placed in BiMaRU category. He claimed the BJP has elevated MP from Bimaru to Sucharu (smoothly run) and vikasit (developed state). Having hit upon a new idea he is convinced Madhya Pradesh will become a prosperous state in the next five years, if the BJP gets the popular mandate for another term. Meanwhile, the state Congress unit has sought the Election Commission's intervention to stop the "Samriddha Madhya Pradesh Abhiyan", which the party said is a violation of model code of conduct, reported PTI.
The best way to lose one’s sense of time is to write about pre-election barbfest. I assure you, this does not feel like 2018. It could be 2013. Or 2023.
Madhya Pradesh will go to polls on November 28. Counting of votes will take place on December 11.
5. Rajasthan
Kesariya Balma, Padhaaro Mhare Des has been the welcome sign that the land of kings has held up for years now, but the time has come for it to perhaps be lowered? Well, it is so, at least according to one poll, which has Congress tipped as the favourite to win the highest number of seats. Congress State President Sachin Pilot is the first choice of voters for the CM’s post. Incumbent Vasundhara Raje seems to be struggling against a strong anti-incumbency factor. The opinion poll seems to think the tide is strongest in favour of turning towards the Congress in Rajasthan, of all the three states. The opinion poll has said that if the Assembly polls are held now, the Congress is likely to win 142 seats in Rajasthan against the BJP's 56. Pilot leads Raje as the popular choice for the chief minister's post with 36 percent voters preferring him, while the latter is the first choice for 27 percent. Former chief minister and Congress leader Ashok Gehlot enjoys the backing of 24 percent voters. The story was a very different one in 2013.
Of the 200 seats, the BJP had 163 with 45 percent voteshare. The Congress had to settle for a mere 21 seats albeit with about 33 percent of the voteshare. The drubbing the Congress received in 2013 in comparison to 2008 was one for the books. The Congress went from 96 to 21 seats in a matter of five years. And the BJP doubled its seat count – from 78 to 163. 2014 general elections were even more damaging to the Congress – the BJP made a clean sweep of the state clinching all 25 seats with a 55.6 percent vote share.
This volte face, as the poll demonstrates, is something the BJP should be worried about. What’s more - just weeks before Rajasthan is scheduled to go to polls, a third front is emerging in the state, Hindustan Times has reported. The Left parties have forged an alliance with the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Janata Dal (Secular). Besides, the state is witnessing an influx of new players in the state. Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal will also be in Jaipur on October 28 to kick off his party's campaign in Rajasthan. Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal is expected to announce a new political party during a rally in Jaipur on October 29. Beniwal is also reportedly in talks with BJP MLA (Sanganer, Jaipur) Ghanshyam Tiwari, who recently quit the ruling party and floated his own Bharat Vahini Party (BVP). While Beniwal is popular among the Jats, Tiwari aims to target the 7 percent Brahmins in the state. However, Beniwal said he will consider alliances only after he formally floats his party.
In the meantime, former PM HD Deve Gowda floated the Rajasthan Loktantrik Morcha in Jaipur last month. The forum comprises four Left parties — Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) and Marxist Communist Party of India (United) — besides the SP, RLD and JD(S).
As enthusiastic as the third front might be, history sings another tune - a third front has never been able to hold ground in Rajasthan.
Rajasthan votes on the December 7; the crowning (counting) will take place on the December 11.
