As India, Iran and Afghanistan pledged to “fully operationalise” the Chabahar port agreement for trade between them at the earliest, a former US special envoy for the region warned that the US may not issue a waiver for the project ahead of the sanctions deadline next month.
“I don’t know if the [US] will make it possible for India to continue to make investments in Chabahar. First of all President [Donald] Trump would have to sign the waiver, and he hates signing waivers about Iran. That’s why he pulled out of the JCPOA (the nuclear Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), because he didn’t want to sign a waiver for Iran every 90 days,” Barnett Rubin, a US academic who was formerly the Senior Advisor to the US special representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan and the UN mission in Afghanistan, told The Hindu.
The Ministry of External Affairs announced on Tuesday that the first trilateral meeting between India, Afghanistan and Iran of the Coordination Council of the Chabahar Agreement had concluded in Tehran. The Ministry also said discussions were held on plans for the Chabahar-Zahedan-Mashad railroad project, as well as connectivity to Central Asia and Russia from the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), in addition to the Chabahar port.
“All sides shared the view that full operationalisation of trilateral Chabahar initiative will promote connectivity and economic development of Afghanistan and the region” an MEA statement issued at the end of the trilateral meeting said, adding that the Indian delegation was led by T.S. Tirumurti, Secretary (Economic Relations), and the Afghan and Iran delegations were led by respective Deputy Ministers of Transport. The officials agreed to hold a “follow-up committee” meet in Chabahar within two months, and another meeting of the trilateral grouping in the “first half of 2019”
The move indicates that all three countries intend to press ahead with the project despite possible U.S. sanctions being imposed next month. According to the US’s proposed timetable, its second round of sanctions against Iran in areas such as the petroleum industry, ports, shipping and shipbuilding will go into effect on November 4, and in the absence of a waiver or “carve-out” for Chabahar, will affect India’s proposed trade via the Iranian port to Afghanistan.
Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan had announced earlier this month that two Indian PSUs had already placed orders for Iranian oil in November, but officials conceded that India’s oil intake would reduce drastically because of sanctions. MEA officials said they hope the US will give India a waiver for Chabahar, in exchange for Indian commitment to cut oil imports from Iran, but a final announcement hasn’t been made by Washington yet.
According to Mr. Rubin, who is now at the Centre for International Cooperation at New York University, the trouble with investing in Chabahar will not end with a waiver, given the financial sanctions on Iran are quite stringent.
“Even if [Mr. Trump] does sign a waiver, the businesses that will be needed for contracts will not work there, due to the other sanctions in place. I know India is very serious about doing this, but will still need to work out its payment mechanism around the US system, which is a tough task,” he added.