OECD: Global resource use set to double by 2060

The scale of the global decarbonisation challenge was hammered home once again today, as a major new report from the OECD warned resource use is set to double by 2060 leading to a significant increase in environmental impacts.

The new report from the influential think tank - entitled Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060: Economic Drivers and Environmental Consequences - assesses the environmental impacts of the extraction and processing of biomass, fossil fuels, metals and non-metallic minerals in developing and industrialised countries through to 2060.

It concludes that while resource efficiency is improving and the recycling industry is set to become more competitive than extractive industries, huge increases in demand for resources are expected to more than outweigh any efficiency savings.

As a result overall consumption of raw materials is set to nearly double by 2060, "placing twice the pressure on the environment that we are seeing today".

In addition, materials-related greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase from 28 Gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent today to 50 Gigatonnes by 2060.

Emissions from materials management activities already account for over half of global emissions and as such the projected growth across the sector would almost certainly condemn the world to breaching the carbon targets scientists believe will have to be meet to avoid warming of more than 1.5C or 2C this century.

Writing in the foreword to the report OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria warned unsustainable resource use and the resulting environmental impacts could start to undermine projected economic gains.

"Growth in materials use, coupled with the environmental consequences of material extraction, processing and waste, is likely to increase the pressure on the resource bases of our economies and jeopardise future gains in well-being," he wrote.

The OECD's projections account for encouraging progress in terms of resource efficiency and the transition from manufacturing-dominated economies to service-led models.

The forecasts also incorporate a slowdown in global economic growth as GDP per capita between developing and industrialised nations continues to converge and the construction boom in China and other large emerging economies slows in the coming decades.

However, it argues improvements in resource productivity cannot offset the huge net increase in demand for materials as the world's population swells to around 10 billion by 2060 and the global middle class expands rapidly.

"Without concrete actions to address these challenges, the projected increase in the extraction and processing of raw materials such as biomass, fossil fuels, metals and non-metallic minerals is likely to worsen pollution of air, water and soils, and contribute significantly to climate change," the report states.

 

Launching the report at the World Circular Economy Forum in Yokohama, Japan, OECD Deputy Secretary General Masamichi Kono said the biggest rises in resource consumption will be in minerals, including construction materials and metals - sectors that engineers fear will prove difficult to decarbonise.

Non-metallic minerals, such as sand, gravel, limestone and crushed rock account for more than half of total materials consumed today in Gigatonne terms and will continue to dominate global demand. "Adding other materials, the total raw materials consumed by an average family in a day would fill up a bathtub," the report states. "These volumes will only become larger between now and 2060."

In addition, to the upward pressure on global greenhouse gas emissions the report warns that soaring demand for raw materials will lead to a raft of wider environmental impacts.

Analysing the impacts from the extraction and production of iron, aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and manganese, as well as concrete, sand, and gravel the report concludes increased demand will result in "significant impacts in areas like acidification, air and water pollution, climate change, energy demand, human health and toxicity of water and land".

"Within this group of metals and minerals, copper and nickel tend to have the greatest per-kilo environmental impacts, while iron, steel and concrete have the highest absolute impacts due to the large volumes used," the OECD states.

The report does contain encouraging news for the global recycling industry, arguing that while it is currently just a tenth of the size of the mining sector in terms of GDP share it is likely to become more competitive and meet a growing share of materials demand.

However, again the report concludes the expansion of the recycling sector and the emergence of circular economy business models will struggle to match soaring increases in overall demand for materials.

"The materials intensity of the global economy is projected to decline more rapidly than in recent decades - at a rate of 1.3 per cent per year on average - reflecting a relative decoupling: global materials use increases, but not as fast as GDP," the report states. "Recycling is projected to become more competitive compared to the extraction of primary materials. [But] the strong increase in demand for materials implies that both primary and secondary materials use increase at roughly the same speed."

The study comes just days after the head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Fatih Birol confirmed global greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise again this year.

Speaking at a conference in Paris last week, Birol stressed the chances of reaching the Paris Agreement target of keeping temperature increases to 1.5C or 2C were getting "weaker and weaker every year, every month".

"Sorry, I have very bad news," Birol told the event at the Polish embassy, ahead of Poland hosting this year's UN Climate Summit in December. "My numbers are giving me some despair… Looking at data for the first nine months of this year, emissions this year will increase once again… global emissions will reach a record historical high."

He reiterated that the same resource use trends highlighted by the OECD are being repeated in the energy sector where encouraging progress in the deployment of clean energy sources is failing to fully offset increased global demand, leading to rising overall emissions.