The bulls are finally starting to outweigh the bears in emerging markets.
After two quarters of declines, developing-nation assets will find a floor and remain stable in the final three months of the year as central banks from Argentina to Turkey move to defend their currencies, a Bloomberg survey shows.
“Some confidence in EM has been restored following strong policy responses in both Argentina and Turkey, and a lighter political calendar ahead,” said Marcelo Assalin, head of emerging markets debt at NN Investment Partners BV in The Hague, which oversees the equivalent of $280 billion in assets. “The majority of EM countries are in relatively healthy economic shape in both external and domestic terms.”
But there are headwinds. The Federal Reserve’s rate path, China’s growth prospects amid an escalation in trade frictions with the US, and rising oil prices are among the biggest risks, the survey showed.
Below are the results of the survey:
Regions investors favoured, by assets:
Optimism for the new trade accord that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement and a more market-friendly stance from President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have been supporting the assets. The Mexican peso has strengthened more than 4 per cent against the dollar this year, the only currency that has risen among 22 major peers tracked by Bloomberg. Argentina and Turkey are at the bottom, with their currencies sinking almost 50 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively.
- Asset Management One Co.
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA
- BNP Paribas Asset Management
- Bulltick
- Columbia Threadneedle Investments
- Daiwa SB Investments Ltd.
- Deltec Asset Management LLC
- Deutsche Bank Wealth Management
- Eastspring Investments
- FPG Securities Co.
- Japan Bank for International Cooperation
- Hermes Investment Management
- Investec Bank
- Krung Thai Bank Pcl
- Manulife Asset Management
- Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co.
- Mizuho Bank Ltd.
- Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
- Natixis Investment Managers
- NN Investment Partners BV
- Nomura Holdings Inc.
- Oanda Corp.
- SBI Securities Co.
- Seaport Global Holdings LLC
- Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB
- Standard Chartered Plc