Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan was already a five-time Member of Parliament when he was chosen for the top job in the state in 2005, a position he has retained till today. But after being in power for 13 years, Chouhan perhaps faces the most difficult battle of his illustrious career.

Opinion polls suggest that the opposition Congress, which had been down and out for years could well be on the comeback trail despite some serious squabbling within its ranks that has become the hallmark of the beleaguered entity that once dominated Madhya Pradesh politics.

The BJP has not lost any election in the state since 2003. But, despite long years in power, opinion polls suggest a close contest. It is testimony to the fact that despite favourable tailwinds, the Congress will not have it easy against Chouhan in his citadel.

Much can change between now and November 28 when the voting will be held but going by the early indications, Chouhan is not sitting pretty unlike in the past when predicting the outcome of MP polls was no-brainer.

Direct fight

Like other three major states going to the polls later this year, Madhya Pradesh will see direct two-way fights between the BJP and the Congress. That would also be the case in Rajasthan. The Congress for the first time has brought its house in order, at least on surface, just in time but could not bring Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) on board to form a formidable alliance. BSP has the ability to influence seats in certain areas bordering Uttar Pradesh including Gwalior and Chambal.

The Congress had won only 58 seats in the last elections while the BJP formed the government with 165 seats in the 230-member assembly.

The BJP government this time faces major anti-incumbency. There are many issues, and right on top is farm distress. Chouhan is accused by his political opponents of failing farmers and promising what he could not deliver. There have been large-scale farmers’ agitations and the chief minister has been hard put to assuage the farmers.

Graft allegations

That apart, a series of corruption cases from Vyapam to e-tendering has tarred the government’s image. The BJP is worried by the fact that the Congress campaign meetings, including the ones carried out by party president Rahul Gandhi, are drawing massive crowds. The ruling party is hoping that like Gujarat, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi entered the campaign arena at the last moment and tilted the balance in BJP’s favour, Madhya Pradesh voters will also go with Modi phenomenon.

For the Congress, the biggest challenge perhaps is dealing with a number of political heavyweights who have not been able to come on same platform in the past. The Congress battleship is being steered by veteran leader Kamal Nath with Jyotiraditya Scindia leading the campaign committee. Former chief minister Digvijay Singh is also actively involved in the state politics after a hiatus.

In the last elections, the victory margins were thin in many seats. The two main parties are eyeing these segments to swing results in their favour. The dalit voters will also play a crucial role. The protests by forward caste leaders against strengthening of the SC/ST act were followed by a huge show of strength by the backward caste warning against any amendments. The ruling party will have to maintain a delicate balance as both the communities have the numbers and the political heft to decide the outcome of the polls.