Congress fight for survival in last Northeast bastion

GUWAHATI: The stakes are high for Congress and BJP in Mizoram, the last battleground the rivals for to prove themselves as it goes to the polls on November 28. While Congress will fight for survival in its last stronghold in the northeast, BJP has set its sights on a 'Congress-mukt' northeast.
Congress has held power in Mizoram for the past years. BJP, on the other hand, has never won a seat in the state though it has contested five times. But the past two years have seen a saffron surge in the northeast, where the party never had a strong base before. In spring of 2016, five northeastern states - Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram - had Congress-led governments. Cut to two years later, only Mizoram remains under Congress rule.

The saffron party began its march in the northeast with its victory in Assam in 2016. Over the next two years, it won the elections in Manipur and Tripura, entered the Arunachal Pradesh government through the back door and became partner in the ruling coalitions of Meghalaya and Nagaland. A victory in Mizoram would consolidate its position in the northeast, but it may not be well-placed for a clean sweep yet.

Perhaps recognizing the position the party is in, BJP general secretary in charge of the northeast Ram Madhav on Friday said, "All Mizoram voters will elect a non-Congress government."

While this would lead to "Congress-mukt" northeast - the promise BJP floated the North East Democratic Alliance (Neda) on, the party has steered clear of claiming it will secure a victory by itself.

The self-assessment is based on the party's performance in two other Christian-majority earlier this year - Meghalaya and Nagaland. It won just two out of the 47 seats it contested in Meghalaya and 12 out of 20 seats it fought in Nagaland. In both states, however, the ruling parties (Congress in Meghalaya and Naga People's Front in Nagaland) won the highest number of seats but lost out on government formation. BJP, on the other hand, went on to become a part of the government in both states by partnering the runners-up - National People's Party (NPP) in Meghalaya and the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party in Nagaland.

The common thread to these "victories" was Neda, which all major non-Congress parties of the region are part of. In Mizoram, however, both Neda partners - MNF and NPP - have said they will go it alone. BJP also announced on Thursday that it will not enter any pre-poll alliance. Keeping options open, Madhav said, "We are willing to forge an alliance with like-minded non-Congress parties after the election."

The strategy varies each time. "In Assam, Nagaland and Tripura, we had pre-poll alliances. In Meghalaya, we worked out a post-poll alliance and in Tripura, we were well beyond the majority mark but kept our pre-poll commitment to the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura," a BJP leader said.

Power has changed hands between Congress and Mizo National Front (MNF) in the six elections Mizoram has had since its formation in 1987. While MNF won the first election in 1987, largely owing to its role in the creation of the state, Congress won the next two elections in 1989 and 1993. After a decade of Congress rule, anti-incumbency swept the state and made way for MNF's return. It retained power for 10 years, ceding to Congress in 2008. It is this cyclical change in power that Congress's opponents are banking on.

What appears is that the fight for Mizoram will pitch Congress against the rest, even when its opponents take up the battle independently.