Macron Seeks an End Political Troubles With Big Fix for Government

(Bloomberg) -- France’s Emmanuel Macron is ready for Phase Two.

The 40-year-old is preparing to give his presidency a jump start and make broad changes within his government to revive his slumping popularity and end months of scandals and political setbacks. The French president is readying for “an important rebound,” according to his office. The cabinet is expected to be announced on Tuesday, Journal du Dimanche reported, citing an aide to the president.

Macron and Prime Minister Edouard Philippe have been reflecting for several days at how to overcome their latest political scandal -- the shock nighttime resignation Tuesday of the most senior cabinet member, Interior Minister Gerard Collomb.

Faced with the dilemma of replacing the minister or use his departure revisit his team and style, Macron is opting for big change. His office declined to give further details on which ministries would be hit by the change.

The case for a root-and-branch overhaul has become more compelling after a torrid few months that have seen his style of governance ridiculed and his popularity ratings plunge. Collomb’s messy resignation over two days was the latest blow; Energy Minister Nicolas Hulot, a popular figure in France, quit on live radio in August. Both high-profile ministers aimed their parting shots at Macron.

‘Human Factors’

“Chaos of news, scandals, personal ambitions, all these very human factors have upended Macron’s plans,” said Bruno Cautres, a professor at Paris-based Sciences-Po institute. “Either he continues to repair every leak or takes a big step to restore stability.”

Macron didn’t foresee that his close aides could be the catalysts to force him to alter his path so soon in his term, said Francois Patriat, a senator, early backer and leading figure in the president’s new Republic on the Move party.

Macron has always seen his mandate in several stages. The first -- and current -- phase consists of implementing tough reforms on tax, labor laws, training, benefits and pensions to revive the economy. Phase Two should have been to capitalize on those efforts in the run-up to the 2022 presidential election.

“Phase One was always until June 2019, after the European elections, as all the major reforms would be completed,” said Patriat.

But the acceleration to a phase two of the Macron presidency is not a signal that the reforms are over. The new government still has to overhaul the unemployment benefits and the pensions systems, two major elements in the grand “transformation” plan that Macron had promised back during his presidential campaign.

“Should we stop the transformation? Is the country doing that much better that we can stop now?” said government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux on France Inter radio on Sunday. He said the reforms would continue with the new teams.

Phase Two

Also, the government is so far not on track to meet its campaign pledge to cut unemployment to 7 percent unemployment by the next presidential election. Stuck at more than over 9 percent, France’s mass unemployment is still close to the levels measured at the start of Macron’s election while economic growth has slowed.

Macron is under pressure. In the past couple of months, his approval rating continued to fall, according to all but one opinion poll. His popularity was at 30 percent, the lowest level recorded by Kantar-Sofres since he took power in May 2017.

Macron Agenda

Elected for a five-year mandate with a majority in Parliament and no mid-term elections, Macron should be safe for now. Last week he celebrated the 60th anniversary of France’s Constitution, praising the presidential system that will allow him to continue his maintain his agenda despite the “tempest, the setbacks” and the “tyranny of the now.”

For Macron though, the new government he’s promising could be a moment to reassess his governance style which appears to be at the root of the problems he’s facing, both within his cabinet and with French voters who label him aloof and even arrogant.

In a Bloomberg interview on Sept. 26, Macron said he “is not poll driven” and to “keep exactly the same pace” for in his mandate. But his approval ratings have fallen faster and further than his one-term predecessor, Francois Hollande, at this stage in his presidency.
 

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