New Delhi: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two-day visit to New Delhi, starting Thursday, will see India doing some diplomatic tightrope walking—balancing its “special” and “privileged” strategic partnership with Moscow and its relatively newer strategic partnership with the US. Both countries are set to sign a clutch of pacts cementing ties in areas ranging from defence to space during Putin’s visit for the 19th India-Russia annual bilateral summit.
The centrepiece event is expected to be the signing of two defence pacts, including one allowing India to acquire the S-400 Triumf air defence system. However, the pact on the purchase of the S-400 and the one on buying four stealth frigates from Russia will attract sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) passed by the US Congress on arms purchases from Russia.
“We urge all our allies and partners to forgo transactions with Russia that would trigger sanctions under CAATSA,” a state department spokesperson said on Wednesday when asked about India’s plan to purchase the multi-billion dollar defence system. “The administration has indicated that a focus area for the implementation of CAATSA section 231 is new or qualitative upgrades in capability, including the S-400 air and missile defence system,” the spokesperson added.
The US Congress, while passing the Act, has allowed US President Donald Trump to waive the sanctions in special cases. The question is whether he will use his powers to ensure India is not penalized. US officials in the past have spoken of Washington taking a lenient view of India’s defence purchases from Russia, given that it involves purchases to service existing weapons systems. Despite New Delhi diversifying its defence procurements in the past decade-and-a-half, an estimated 60-70% of its hardware is still of Russian origin.
The acquisition of the Triumf system and the frigates, though, are a different case. For one, both are new acquisitions by India. It will also be a test of India’s closely held principle of exercising “strategic autonomy”.
“India has maintained its sovereignty as regards to its relationship with countries. We shall maintain it in all earnestness,” defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman was quoted as saying recently by PTI, when asked whether the US sanctions would affect India’s ties with Russia.
Backing out of the S-400 deal because of concerns over CAATSA is likely to put a serious question mark on the “special and privileged strategic partnership” that India professes to have with Russia. In May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had travelled to the Russian coastal city of Sochi for an informal summit with Putin, seen as a course correction by India after Moscow was seen moving closer to China and Pakistan.
“The question here is how India will balance its security needs concurrently with the relationship that we have with the US which has taken a new turn since President Trump has taken office,” said C.U. Bhaskar, director of the New Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies think tank. The current situation is a “test of the resilience” of the India-US and the India-Russia relationships. “India seems to be in a position where it has to make a binary choice (between the US and Russia).” Bhaskar said, adding this will throw up a question mark over India’s commitment to its “strategic autonomy”.
People familiar with the developments say the US clearance or presidential waiver against CAATSA provisions “should come through for India”. Any weapon accessed from Russia would not be used against the US or its interests, but for Indian security, one of the people mentioned above said. “So there is no conflict here.”
The implications of CAATSA for India was discussed at the “2+2” talks between the foreign and defence ministers of India and the US when they met in New Delhi on 6 September. Muddying the waters, however, has been the unpredictability of Trump and the tense ties that he shares with the Democrats, who have accused Russia of influencing the 2016 US elections in his favour.
Last month, the US had imposed sanctions on China for buying Russian military jets and S-400 missiles. Should the US impose sanctions on India, “India and China will be in the same boat. It is a very anomalous situation,” Bhaskar said, referring to the US looking at India as a counterweight to China.