The risk of a global energy shock is rising rapidly as the looming US sanctions on Iran and a rising US dollar combine to export layers of stress to the rest of the world.
While the renewed US sanctions don't officially kick in until early next month they are already having a significant effect as Iran's customers scramble to find different sources of supply.
Iranian oil production is falling quite rapidly – its September production was, at 1.72 million barrels a day, more than 250,000 barrels a day lower than in August. There are expectations that once the sanctions bite it could lose at least twice that amount of production and potentially more than a billion barrels of oil a day.
Stephen Bartholomeusz has the full piece here.