Passing through his honeymoon period in power when the Pakistan army establishment is relieved that it does not have to deal with a Nawaz Sharif who they felt was getting too big for his boots, new prime minister Imran Khan is currently better off. But for how long, one does not know.
For now, the army is all too keen not to be seen as meddling over much in civilian affairs and is prepared to give Imran a long rope. But in Pakistan’s relations with India, Afghanistan and the US, the men in uniform would rather run things the way they want and, while wielding power without responsibility, fire from the civilian government’s shoulder.
Yet, Imran will soon realise, if he has not done so already, that the road ahead is rocky when it concerns India especially. He cannot make peace overtures while ruffling feathers in Rawalpindi. Any move that looks conciliatory towards India on closing terror camps and on equipping and infiltrating terrorists into Kashmir would be sacrilegious howsoever much the new premier may talk of sitting across the table with India on a range of issues.
Likewise, not parroting the line that India is fomenting trouble in Baluchistan to counter the narrative of Pakistani involvement in Kashmir to fuel terror for which Islamabad is in the dock across the world, would be unthinkable. Evidently, Imran is on a sticky wicket and while he owes his power primarily to the army, he can ill afford to chart his own course on relations with India. There is a laxman rekha that he can cross only at his peril. As it is, his legislative majority is too thin for him to flex his muscles.
The first jolt to him after he assumed power was when India called off the foreign minister level talks in New York because Indian army personnel were being targeted by Pakistan-inspired terrorists in Kashmir and also because special postage stamps were issued to commemorate Kashmir terrorist Burhan Wani who was gunned down by Indian security forces in July 2016.
Imran had been hoping that he would be able to show some headway towards peace in Indo-Pak talks but there is more to Pakistan-based terror in Kashmir than meets his eye. There is the hidden hand of the Pakistani military establishment in their nefarious activities which Imran cannot dream of unmasking.
Hiding behind such a shroud of perfidy and deception, the Pakistani establishment can hardly hope to look for durable peace. It has to first close down training camps for terrorists which the army is disinclined to do. No amount of Imran Khan keenness to corner the credit for ushering in durable peace can work in the absence of the Pakistan army’s will. Rajya Sabha MP Subramaniam Swamy’s impolitic statement that Imran is virtually a ‘chaprasi’ (peon) dressed up as a prime minister by the army may sound crude but there is no running away from the fact that he (Imran) is forced to dance to the army’s tune while putting up a facade of independence in decision-making.
While outlining his vision for ‘Naya Pakistan’ before he took over as prime minister, Imran said in a televised address: “I am that Pakistani who has the most familiarity with Hindustan, I have been all over that country (for cricket, of course). I think it will be very good for all of us if we have good relations with Hindustan. We need to have trade ties, and the more we engage in trading, the more both nations will benefit.” These were sane thoughts but devoid of realism in an atmosphere in which the army calls the shots in Pakistan.
The barbs between Pakistan envoy to the United Nations Saad Warraich and Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj at the General Assembly this time around were all-too-familiar when it comes to ties between the two countries. The manner in which Warraich brought into his speech references to atrocities on minorities in India while forgetting how unsafe the minorities feel in Pakistan revealed a jaundiced approach to a shocking degree.
Hindus in Pakistan have over the years been reduced to insignificant numbers while Christians live in fear of attacks and persecution in a country that prides in being an Islamic state and a theocracy where non-Muslims are dismissed as inconsequential. The hard reality is that the Pakistan military benefits from an adversarial position with India — which helps it maintain primacy over a weak Pakistani state — and consequently, it is not in Rawalpindi’s interest to resolve the core conflict. That is why well-meaning Pakistani civilian leaders who have tried to forge durable peace with India have fallen by the wayside.
Yet, in a fast-changing world, there is no knowing when things could change and the winds of detente could blow across the sub-continent as it happened in Germany and is now showing signs of happening in the two Koreas. For now, however, all this appears to be a pipe dream.
Pakistan is indeed bleeding economically and with oppression in Baluchistan touching new heights how long it can sustain a war-like situation with India while it faces internal strife on an increased scale is anybody’s guess. The Chinese are a huge prop for Pakistan but the manner in which Islamabad is falling into a Chinese debt trap is something that many in Pakistan are now realising.
All in all, there can be little hope for durable peace and amity between India and Pakistan in the current circumstances. Yet, it is never right to give up all hope.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a political commentator and columnist. He has authored four books.