Brent oil hits four-year high ahead of Iran sanctions, but demand may stutter

Reuters  |  SINGAPORE 

By Gloystein

Brent futures rose to as much as $83.32 a barrel on Wednesday and were at $83.09 at 0335 GMT, still 36 cents, or 0.4 percent above their last close.

U.S. Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $73.44 a barrel.

WTI prices were supported by a report on Friday of a stagnant rig count in the United States, which points to a slowdown in U.S. crude production, which now rivals top producers and

Brent was pushed up by looming sanctions against Iran, which will start targeting its sector from Nov. 4.

said on Monday that "the market is eyeing at $100 per barrel".

In a sign that the financial market is positioning itself for further price rises, hedge funds increased their bullish wagers on U.S. crude in the week to Sept. 25, data from the (CFTC) showed on Friday, increasing futures and options positions in and by 3,728 contracts to 346,566 during the period.

In a further sign of the impact that the U.S. sanctions on will have on the market, China's said it is halving loadings of Iranian this month. is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.

"If Chinese refiners do comply with U.S. sanctions more fully than expected, then the market balance is likely to tighten even more aggressively," Edward Bell, at wrote in a note published on Sunday.

Trading activity will be low in this week due to the Golden Week holiday there.

U.S. called Saudi Arabia's on Saturday, discussing ways to maintain sufficient supply once Iran's exports are hit by sanctions.

"Until sizable supply is offered up by OPEC, ultimately traders will continue to push the envelope even more," said Stephen Innes, at in

"Even if they (Saudi Arabia) wanted to bend to Trump's wishes, how much spare capacity does the Kingdom have?" he asked.

"We're going to find out very soon as approximately 1.5 million barrels (per day) of Iranian oil is effectively going offline on Nov. 4. If the market senses that capacity is tapped out at 10.5 million bpd ... will rocket higher with the flashy $100 per barrel price tag indeed a reasonable sounding target," Innes said.

LOOMING SLOWDOWN?

With soaring, there are concerns over their inflationary effect on demand growth, especially in Asia's emerging markets where weakening currencies are further adding to high fuel import costs.

Add the trade disputes between the and other major powers, especially China, and economic growth into 2019 could be eroded.

Growth in China's already sputtered in September as both external and domestic demand weakened, two surveys showed on Sunday.

In Japan, business confidence among big manufacturers declined in the last quarter its lowest in nearly a year, as firms felt the pinch from rising raw material costs and as global trade conditions worsened.

(Reporting by Gloystein; Editing by and Richard Pullin)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, October 01 2018. 12:35 IST