Slowing growth in CEE manufacturing signals golden days are over

Reuters  |  BUDAPEST 

By Than and Sandor Peto

The region, which has close economic and export links to the eurozone, primarily to Germany, has been booming in the past years helped by loose monetary policies. The Hungarian and Polish central banks still maintain a dovish stance.

But growth of Germany's sector slowed to a 25-month low in September on the steepest drop in new export orders in more than five years, which does not bode well for the eastern economies of the

As rising uncertainties amid an escalating trade war between the and are taking their toll on the German economy, the latest readings of Purchasing Managers' indices on Monday showed the Czech PMI reading at its lowest since November 2016 and order growth also at a nearly 2-year low.

Activity in Polish barely grew in September as new orders fell for the first time in nearly two years.

The purchasing managers' index for Polish manufacturing fell to 50.5 in September from 51.4 in August, its lowest level since October, 2016. It came in below a forecast for 51.5 in a poll.

Hungary's seasonally-adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 53.8 in September from a revised 56 in August.

The Association of Logistics, said the figure was below an average reading of 57.1 in the past three Septembers.

"The PMIs for fell markedly in September. Most notably, the Polish and Czech surveys plunged to their weakest levels since late-2016," said in a note.

"Manufacturing output has weakened in Germany, and this is starting to feed through to softer industrial activity in This supports our forecast that growth across the region will continue to slow over the coming quarters."

Czech, Hungarian, Polish PMIs vs https://reut.rs/2ItL7lo

Germany's leading economic institutes last week cut their 2018 growth forecast for Europe's largest economy to 1.7 percent from 2.2 percent.

Hungary's economy, home to big of and Audi, is expected to slow to 3.5 percent next year and 3 percent in 2020, from 4.4 percent this year according to central data.

The Polish economy is projected to slow as well, to 3.8 percent next year from 4.6 percent this year based on central data.

The Czech economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.2 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year, according to its central

(Additional reporting by in Prague, editing by Ed Osmond)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Mon, October 01 2018. 16:12 IST