The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
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The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The FBN Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
NAFTA Deal By The End Of The Month Remains Distant
After agreeing to update the NAFTA agreement between the US and Mexico, President Trump gave Canada until the end of September to negotiate and sign off on a trilateral deal. Following meetings between Canadian and US trade officials, it appears that the two sides are far from a deal. Canada remains insistent on removing any threat of US tariffs on Canadian automobiles, something that President Trump wishes to keep. Canada’s largest private sector union spoke yesterday that ensuring that car tariffs are off the table is a dealbreaker for the Canadians.
Export Sales Announcements
Export sales of 121,700 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year; and, Export sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
Soybeans Rally Off Of 10-Year Low On Strong Export Demand, Little Producer Selling
Yesterday, Nov soybeans gained 20.25 cents during the trading session to settle at $8.5025. The contract is up 1.6% on the week, making this the largest weekly increase in five weeks. The USDA reported export sales for soybeans at 917,600 MT, well above trade expectations. US origin beans remain very attractive for countries like the Netherlands and Argentina to import to crush into meal and oil or to export again to China. Nov beans gave up some ground in the overnight session, dropping around 7 cents.
Soybean Planting In Brazil Is Off To A Good Start, Weather Remains Favorable
Planting for soybeans in the Brazilian state of Parana are off to the fastest start in five years, pegged at 9% complete, in comparison to only 1% this time last year. The earliest planted soybeans could be harvested as early as the first week of January, if not sooner, and will largely be destined for export to China, where strong premiums for the oilseed exist. Furthermore, early planted soybeans in turn mean an early planting for second crop corn, or safrinha, which represents nearly ⅔ of Brazilian corn production. Last year’s safrinha crop saw delayed planting and poor growing conditions due to drought.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)
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