Deloitte is forecasting a 5% to 5.6% year-over-year increase in retail holiday sales this year, with spending expected to exceed $1.1 trillion between November and January, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline. E-commerce is expected to increase 17% to 22% this season versus last season, reaching $128 billion to $134 billion. Deloitte analysts attribute the increase to disposable income growth, a strong labor market, and high consumer confidence. Risks include the impact of Fed tightening and any changes in the stock market that could drive a deterioration in consumer confidence. Target Corp. TGT, -0.57% has increased its seasonal hire by 20% to 120,000 in anticipation of the coming holiday season. Macy's Inc. M, +0.11% and Michaels Cos. Inc. MIK, -2.16% are among the other retailers that have already announced their seasonal hiring plans. The Amplify Online Retail ETF IBUY, -1.49% has gained 28% for 2018 so far. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF has rallied 14.4% for the period. And the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.13% is up 8.8% for 2018 to date.
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