Centrum is bullish on Kirloskar Ferrous has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 140 in its research report dated September 10, 2018.
Centrum's research report on Kirloskar Ferrous
Kirloskar Ferrous (KFIL) won two key iron ore mining assets in the Karnataka auctions which is a long term positive event for the company given the 100% captive integration for pig iron business with good quality ore, close proximity of mines to KFIL plant, cost savings v/s open market purchase and improved efficiency due to better value in use. We remain positive on KFIL’s prospects as it features i) increasing share of high-margin casting business which has spare capacity, ii) cost efficiencies from upcoming low-payback projects albeit slightly delayed, iii) an enviable track record of converting cash profits to cash flows (5Y/10Y AOCF/CP ratio of 1x/0.9x) and iv) strong balance sheet with low D/E of 0.1x. We expect strong earnings growth during FY18-20E driven by castings volume CAGR of 20%. Maintain Buy with TP of Rs140.
Outlook
We see scope for re-rating and value KFIL using our conservative five-year AOCF/EV yield methodology to arrive at our TP of Rs140. Maintain Buy. Key risks are lower volumes and raw material volatility.
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