Grain and Livestock Outlook

Tasks at Hand by Steve Bruce

The USDA will issue new production and supply/demand estimates next Wednesday at 11:00 am Chicago time…………………Trade estimates are being released and it appears that the expectation is for the bean crop to be larger than the previous USDA estimate in August while the corn crop could be very close to the August estimate…………….Carry over projections in both domestic and international supply/demand reports remain unsure as few are confident on how the USDA will account for changes in trade agreements………………..I still preach the Gospel of Prudence and emphasize going into USDA reports as even and open minded as possible……………..Regardless of whether one believes the figures, or not, the market does respect the USDA and has and will trade those figures……………

The USDA numbers matter and so does corn and bean harvest and winter wheat seeding……………Traditionally, the Heartland will get busy and get all tasks complete within the next 6 to 8 weeks, weather permitting…………..Traders will be monitoring field reports and we just want to remind everyone  that early harvest results are suspect as the diseased and problematic portion of the crops tend to be combined/cut/picked first……………………..

The remnant of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Gordon is expected to be centered over western Illinois on Sunday morning……….the significant rainfall in this past week in the upper Midwest is noteworthy as harvest may be delayed and quality/disease issues may develop…………..yet, crusty old timers have said that it’s better to contend with a little too much moisture than too little……………and topsoil moisture is more than welcome for winter wheat in order to develop a good stand going into dormancy…………..

The trade remains sensitive to political/economic decisions on trade agreements and monetary policy and it appears that differing  attitudes and views will be discussed and broadcast as we approach the mid-term elections in early November.  We could be strongly influenced by these differing opinions and remedies as they are floated and/or implemented……………

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
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