Russia deal likely to make or break 2+2 talks for India

The forthcoming 2+2 dialogue between India and US here on September 6 is likely to be dominated by the possibility of US  imposing sanctions against India if it bought S-400 Triumf air defence missile system from Russia.

The maiden 2+2 dialogue will see External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman holding discussions with respective counterparts Mike Pompeo and James Mattis respectively on issues ranging from bilateral to global issues. 

India will acquire five missile systems worth over Rs 40,000 crore and the talks are in advanced stage with Russia and the deal may be announced before summit talks between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in October. 

India will put forth its views on the proposed missile deal with Russia and convey to the US that it is going ahead with the contract as India needs the missile system to bolster its air defence system.  This comes in the backdrop of the US imposing military sanctions against Russia under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act(CAATSA) some months back.

The act allows the US administration to punish entities and countries engaging in significant transactions with the defence or intelligence establishment of Russia.  However, the US Congress on August 1 granted President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo the power to waive off sanctions.

However, the matter gained urgent currency in India as days before the 2+2 talks are to begin Pentagon’s assistant secretary of defence for Asian and pacific Security Affairs Randall Schriver said last week in Washington cannot guarantee New Delhi a special waiver from sanctions if it buys new weapons platforms from Moscow.

Schriver said in reference to US Congress granting powers to the President to waive off sanction this had created a misconception that Washington would not impose sanctions on New Delhi.  “I would say that’s a bit misleading,” Schriver said in a speech at the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace in Washington as reported by AFP. “We would still have very significant concerns if India pursued major new platforms and systems from Russia. I can’t sit here and tell you that they would be exempt, that we would use that waiver.”

He said the prospect of India buying the S-400 missile system from Russia is “troubling” for the United States. He urged New Delhi to “seek alternatives and see if we could be a partner in addressing those needs.”

In this backdrop, India is likely to impress upon that besides its regional security environment, its decades old strategic and defence ties with Russia and assert that New Delhi will move forward with the proposed contract, it was learnt. US will also be apprised of the fact that India has almost finalized the deal with Russia and there is not going back on it at this stage, sources said.

Clarifying India’s stand on the CAATSA, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in June this year had said it is an American law and not a United Nations law, and India has conveyed its position on the issue to the US. “Our defence relation with Russia has endured several decades and we have conveyed it to a US Congressional delegation which visited India recently.”

She said negotiations with Russia for the S-400 missile deal have almost come to conclusion. The deal has been in discussion for the last few years, long before the recent CAATSA came into effect.