Monsoon delays departure to shower rabi with fortune

As the withdrawal of southwest monsoon is delayed, the country is likely to witness more rain. September 1 is the normal date for withdrawal of monsoon from most parts of India but indications are that the withdrawal process is expected to be delayed.

Therefore, incessant rain in east, central and north-west India may linger, helping the rabi crop. According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon withdrawal is expected after the second week of September. 

IMD scientist Charan Singh said, “There is no indication of withdrawal of monsoon in the first week of September.  The delay of monsoon withdrawal is good for rabi crops in the country.”

Ironically, despite floods in several parts of the country,  the monsoon till September 1 has been 6 per cent less than normal, with several districts of north interior Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Saurashtra and Kutch staring at a shortfall. The country has received 676.6 mm rainfall against the normal of 721.1 mm till date.

IMD officials said the first indication of withdrawal is when monsoon covers a small area of extreme west Rajasthan. Currently, the extreme west part of Rajasthan has not seen rainfall in the last 15-20 days. Subsequent to this, the second indication is when monsoon covers most of Rajasthan, Kutch, parts of Haryana and Punjab. Yet another indication is when winds turn north westerly. Currently it is south westerly.

As far as Delhi-NCR is concerned, monsoon usually withdraws after September 15. As per Skymet, a private weather forecaster, monsoon withdrawal in 2017 was most delayed and had begun on September 27 that year. In 2016, it withdrew on September 15. In 2015, monsoon withdrew on September 4 while  in 2014 it withdrew on September 23. Monsoon withdrawal occured on September 9 in 2013.

The IMD data shows 309 districts received normal monsoon while 247 are rain deficient till September 1.

Interestingly, more than 40 per cent districts in South India witnessed deficient rainfall this monsoon season.

The IMD predicted fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over the North-Eastern States, Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha on Sunday.  “A similar outlook is valid for Bihar on Sunday and Tuesday and for Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Sunday and Monday,” it said.

Officials of Agriculture Ministry said the rainfall has been well-distributed, though overall quantum might have been low in some regions.

Meanwhile, till last week, sowing of kharif crops for the 2018-19 season was around 1.3 million hectares less than last year due to shift from pulses to oilseeds in some States and low acreage due to drought in others.

India's overall foodgrain production in 2017-18 (July to June) was at an all-time high of 284.83 million tonnes, almost 2 per cent more than the last estimate that came in June, and 9.72 million tonnes more than 2016-17.