The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Loading News
The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Commodity markets and the information that moves them is constantly changing making it almost impossible to keep up. The Blue Line Express is a valuable resource written by, Blue Line Futures, for hedgers and traders that provides the latest and most pertinent news and technical analysis. Take one stop on the Blue Line Express for daily fundamental and technical analysis so you can make better informed decisions.
We were on Bloomberg discussing corn, wheat, and lean hogs Friday morning, click this link to watch!
Click this link to watch our weekly “2 Minute Drill”
Corn
Last Week’s Close: December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 2 cents, putting losses for the week at 16 cents after trading in a 20-cent range. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought back 10,243 futures through August 21st, trimming their net short position to 49,896 futures.
Quick Take: We changed our bias from neutral to bearish in Tuesday morning’s Grain Express as our indicators started to soften up considerably. The inability to get out above technical resistance at the start of last week, coupled with a bearish fundamental landscape led to a technical breakdown which triggered some aggressive selling. Friday was the only positive session of the week; September option expiration likely played a role in that. The bears remain in control until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above technical resistance, see tomorrow’s Grain Express for the full technical breakdown. The Pro Farmer croup tour finished up on Friday, they have the U.S. corn yield at 177.3 bushels per acre an production at 14.501 billion bushels, slightly below what the USDA has forcasted.
Click this link for a FREE trial of our daily commodity analysis!
Soybeans
Last Week’s Close: November soybean futures finished Friday’s session up ½ a cent, a participation trophy after finishing the week down 43 ¼ cents. Futures trade in a 53 ½ cent range. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back 20,207 futures through August 21st, trimming their net short position to 42,027.
Quick Take: We went in to last week’s trade with a neutral bias but changed that to bearish in Tuesday’s morning’s Grain Express as several indicators became considerably weaker. Trade talks with China went nowhere, as expected. That doesn’t mean we will not get headlines in the near future that read something along the lines of “U.S. and China to continue trade negotiations”. The bears remain in firm control but need to be aware of the headline risks. The market finished the week near technically and psychologically significant support. A break and close below here likely takes us to a retest of the July 16th lows, see tomorrow’s Grain Express for the full technical breakdown. The Prof Farmer crop tour finished up on Friday, they have U.S. yields at 53 bushels per acre and production at 4.683 billion bushels, well above what the USDA has projected.
Click this link for a FREE trial of our daily commodity analysis!
Wheat
Last Week’s Close: December wheat futures finished Friday’s session down 6 ¾ cents, extending losses for the week to 44 ¼ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought 1,943 futures through August 21st, extending their net long position to 63,364 futures.
Quick Take: We went into last weeks trade with an outright bearish bias in our daily Grain Express. The market is hovering near significant support which could encourage short covering, but our bias remains outright bearish. 538-543 represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, the 50% retracement (middle of the range) for the year, and the breakout point from July 25th, if the bulls cannot reclaim ground above here expect the pressure to accelerate as funds head towards the exits. See tomorrow morning’s Grain Express for the full technical breakdown.
Click this link for a FREE trial of our daily commodity analysis!
Live Cattle
Last Week’s Close: October live cattle finished the week 4.05 lower, trading in a range of 5.275. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 7,118 contracts, extending their net long position to 62,059 futures.
Quick Take: In last Monday’s Livestock Roundup we stated: “Last week we were fairly optimistic on prices, but that has changed as we enter a new week of trade and linger near the top end of the recent range”. Price is wat you pay, value is what you get. Now that prices are back towards the lower end of the range we are again optimistic on near term prices. With that said, the chart is not has softened up considerably now that we have marked lower highs an lower low several times over the last month. Ultimately, we feel that the market will continue to trade in a bit of a range, something that we have been suggesting for the past few months. Friday’s Cattle on Feed (aka Cattle on Fade) report was on the bearish side. On Feed came in at 105%, Placements: 108%, an Marketed at 105%.
Click this link for a FREE trial of our daily commodity analysis!
Feeder Cattle
Last Week’s Close: October feeder cattle finished the week 5.125 lower after trading in a range of 5,85. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought a whopping 168 contracts, putting their net long position at 512 futures.
Quick Take: In last weekend’s update we said that the bears still have the advantage on the chart, they proved that this week. The market finished near significant support which may offer some stabilization, but we remain bearish this market as the techncials continue to look weak. 146.40 is t he 50% retracement, a break and close below here opens the door for a run at 144.25.
Click this link for a FREE trial of our daily commodity analysis!
Lean Hogs
Last Week’s Close: October lean hogs finished the week 7.275 lower, trading in a range of 9.325. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 8,182 futures, putting their net position at 1,777.
Quick Take: This has been an extremely volatile market which is one of the reasons we have been suggesting using options, this gives you exposure while limiting your risk, allowing you to sit through the day to day volatility. Swine flu in China is something we have been monitoring closely. If the outbreaks continue to spread, we could see the deferred months catch a big bid, something we discussed in our interview with Bloomberg on Friday.
Become a client and receive our daily analysis for FREE!
Better Service, Platforms, and Rates!
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Loading News