'Amazon effect' could have impact on inflation dynamics: paper

Reuters 

By Dunsmuir

"In the past 10 has raised both the frequency of price changes and the degree of uniform pricing across locations," said Alberto Cavallo, an at Harvard Business School, who analyzed how so-called multi-channel retailers - those with - such as have reacted to the rise of Amazon.com Inc.

pricing technologies are widespread among both types of retailers and the transparency of the internet has also reduced pricing disparities, he said in the paper delivered to the annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve is among those attending.

A number of Fed policymakers have raised the prospect that relatively low levels of U.S. inflation in recent years in the face of a strong economy may be due to the ability of companies like Amazon to keep a lid on overall prices.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding and - hit the central bank's 2 percent target in March for the first time in six years. But there are no signs it will accelerate sharply, as many economists have come to expect in periods of low unemployment.

The U.S. unemployment rate currently stands at 3.9 percent while the economy is experiencing robust growth in what is the second-longest expansion on record.

This environment has meant retailers have had to become more nimble, leading to lower margins. For example, Cavallo found that Walmart more frequently changed the prices on its website between 2016 and 2018 for products also easily found on Amazon.

Last week, Walmart reported second-quarter sales that topped estimates as more shoppers visited its stores and a revamped website drove Walmart's grew 40 percent, up from 33 percent growth in the previous quarter, but gross margins fell for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Cavallo also found retailers more responsive to changes in other factors as well.

"Fuel prices, exchange-rate fluctuations, or any other force affecting costs that may enter the used by these firms are more likely to have a faster and larger impact on than in the past," he concluded.

(Reporting by Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Sat, August 25 2018. 20:14 IST