Tesla Inc. TSLA -0.96% is making an operating profit of more than $3,000 on each sale of the current low-price version of its Model 3 sedan, but would likely lose nearly twice that amount if it sold the vehicle at its long-promised $35,000 price tag, according to a new estimate from UBS UBS -0.13% Securities LLC.
The Model 3’s profitability is a critical issue for the electric-car maker, which began selling the vehicle a year ago as it sought to move from a luxury niche into the mass market, and end years of losses.
The vehicle’s price currently ranges from $49,000 to about $80,000, well above the more-affordable target long envisioned by Chief Executive Elon Musk.
At the low end of that range, Tesla’s operating profit is likely $3,420 a vehicle, according to the UBS estimate, which is based on analysis of a Model 3 vehicle the firm deconstructed in order to understand how it was made. That would help explain why Mr. Musk is forecasting a profit in the third quarter.
The lack of a $35,000 base model in Tesla’s lineup, as well as early demand for the more expensive versions, should set up the company for its best quarter of profitability from the vehicle ahead of less-costly versions down the road that will reduce the lineup’s margins, Colin Langan, who wrote the UBS report, said Thursday in an interview.
“Q3 is Tesla’s best shot because of this pricing dynamic,” he said of profitability. “I’m very clear that I don’t think that’s sustainable.”
A Tesla spokeswoman declined to comment on the report.
Tesla’s finances are in a brighter spotlight now as Mr. Musk considers taking the auto maker private, in part to shed intense scrutiny of the company’s finances as it grows its business globally.
Before Tesla began Model 3 production in July 2017 and revealed its pricing strategy, UBS estimated the Model 3 at $35,000 would lose about $2,300 a car, while a more expensive version at $42,000 would eke out $670 of profit.
The teardown of the Model 3, however, resulted in a higher estimated cost of the vehicle’s batteries.
Tesla has spent the past 12 months struggling to ramp up production to reach a rate that would give it enough vehicles to sell to generate cash. At the end of June, Tesla finally reached its long-delayed goal of making 5,000 Model 3s in a single week, a pace that if continued should help it be profitable this quarter and next, Mr. Musk has said.
A $35,000 version will come later this year, Mr. Musk has promised. In May, on Twitter, he suggested Tesla first needed to ramp up production to help lower costs, saying shipping the $35,000 version then would cause the company “to lose money & die.”
Tesla needs three to six months after being able to reach a build rate of 5,000 sedans a week before being able to sell the $35,000 version and “live,” he said.
The challenge for the auto industry in selling electric vehicles is the added cost of batteries compared to a gasoline powered vehicle.
Write to Tim Higgins at Tim.Higgins@WSJ.com