Oil mixed as Iran sanctions seen tightening market, trade spat weighs on trade

Reuters  |  SINGAPORE 

By Gloystein

Front-month Brent futures were at $72.12 per barrel at 0246 GMT, up 5 cents from their last close.

Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were flat at $66.81 a barrel.

Despite the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth due to escalating trade tensions, markets are for now relatively tight, analysts said, mostly because of sanctions on Iranian the plan to implement in November.

Although many other powers, including the and major Asian buyers such as and oppose sanctions, many are expected to bow to American pressure.

"Iranian exports are set for a 'cliff edge exit' from the market in Q4 2018," BMI Research said in a note.

"We do not believe that sanctions have been fully priced into Brent, leaving room for a significant run up in prices towards the end of the year," it added.

Analysts expect the drop-off in Iranian crude exports to range between 500,000 barrels per day and 1.3 million bpd.

The reduction will largely depend on whether major buyers of Iranian oil in Asia, including India, and Japan, receive sanctions waivers that would still allow some imports.

It is also not clear whether China, the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, will bow to Washington's pressure.

TRADE DISPUTE

Friday's markets acted cautiously amid heightened trade tensions between and

"The market seems to be focused on fears of reduced demand from China, partially due to the effects of the trade wars between and the United States," said William O'Loughlin, at Australia's

In the latest round, China said it would impose additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of imports, which would include refined products, autos and medical equipment.

Crucially to oil markets, however, crude has been dropped off the list.

of the for Public Policy said Beijing's decision reflected China's reliance on imports.

"The issue for the Chinese is that any tariff on exports (including) oil will likely hurt their economy disproportionately because they have to import," he said, noting that "U.S. exports will find a home regardless of how the global supply deck is reshuffled."

U.S. crude exports to China, seen as a tool to reduce America's trade deficit with Asia's biggest economy, have soared in the last two years and by the middle of this year were worth around $1 billion per month.

(Reporting by Gloystein in Singapore; additional reporting by in Houston; Editing by Eric Meijer)

(This story has not been edited by Business Standard staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

First Published: Fri, August 10 2018. 09:26 IST