The match between Manchester United and Liverpool ended in a goalless draw. (Source: Reuters)
In football, one of the biggest reason of moaning by fans is that the big clubs have decisions go their way by the referees or luck is in their favour. It prompts commentators and pundits alike to counter with claims of these decisions evening themselves out over the course of a lengthy season. But a study conducted by ESPN, Intel and University of Bath has claimed that some clubs do get a larger share of luck than the rest. As per the study, Liverpool were the ‘unluckiest’ team in the English Premier League in 2017/18 and Manchester United the ‘luckiest’.
According to the study, Liverpool should have finished 12 points better off than their final tally of 75 points with 14 incidents reviewed to put them in second place instead of the eventual fourth. The key game in the study was the 2-2 draw against Tottenham on February 4 which should have resulted in all three points as against just the one.
On the other end of the spectrum, Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United finished six points better off than they should have, the study reveals. Accordingly, United should have had six points fewer to finish in fourth after 16 dodgy incidents were reviewed. The contentious games were: win over Swansea on August 19, draw with Liverpool on October 14 and beat Brighton on November 25.
The study further reckons Manchester City should have finished with 97 points instead of the record 100 points and yet clinched the Premier League title by a 10 point margin from Liverpool.
At the bottom of the table, the study Huddersfield should have been relegated instead of Stoke when the ‘incorrect’ refereeing decisions were factored in. Stoke City should have finished with four more points and four more goals to see them stay up for a 11th straight season.
The study also found Brighton, ninth in November, should have finished in the same spot instead of the eventual 15th. It would have meant an extra £11.5m in prize money on their return to the top flight.
Arsenal were the second most ‘unluckiest’ team in the league as per the study. With departed Arsene Wenger’s Gunners finishing outside the top-four for a second straight season, they should have garnered eight more points but it would still have not been enough to breach the Champions League spots. The Luck Index reveals Arsenal should have dropped three points at home but gained 11 points away – despite their miserable away record in 2018 which saw them lose seven of eight at the turn of the year.
How does the ‘Luck Index’ work?
A research team looked at the Premier League footage with ex-referee Peter Walton analysing the videos and keeping watching for:
# Goals that should have been disallowed
# Incorrectly disallowed goals
# Incorrectly awarded penalties (that were scored)
# Penalties that were not awarded but should have been
# Incorrect red-card decisions
# Red-card incidents that were missed
# Goals scored after injury time overran
# Deflected goals
Once the incidents were indentified, an alternative outcome of the affected matches was taken, using a model that also took into account factors such as team strength, form, and home advantage.
Example: In Liverpool’s 0-0 draw with Manchester United on October 14, the study found Jurgen Klopp’s side should have been awarded a penalty in the 63rd minute and the new simulated scoreline should have been a 1-0 win for the home side.
ADJUSTED PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | 97 (-3) |
| Liverpool | 87 (+12) |
| Spurs | 77 |
| Manchester United | 75 (-6) |
| Arsenal | 71 (+8) |
| Chelsea | 70 |
| Burnley | 50 (-4) |
| Newcastle United | 48 (+4) |
| Brighton and Hove Albion | 46 (+6) |
| Everton | 44 (-5) |
| Crystal Palace | 42 (-2) |
| West Ham United | 41 (-1) |
| Watford | 41 |
| Leicester City | 40 (-7) |
| Southampton | 40 (+4) |
| Bournemouth | 38 (-6) |
| Stoke City | 37 (+4) |
| Huddersfield | 37 |
| Swansea City | 34 (+1) |
| West Brom | 33 (+2) |
Assistant Professor Thomas Curran at the University of Bath said all games were simulated “thousands of times to model how it should have turned out”. He said the project was “one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted”.
Meanwhile, former referee Walton stated: “The results demonstrate the impact and importance of refereeing decisions on a game. With the Premier League deciding not to introduce VAR for the coming season, it is interesting to see how much luck plays a part in the way the league unfolds.”