A dream start and the hiccups

*Rejecting widespread resistance at home, Nawaz Sharif  attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing in ceremony in May 2014.

*India called off foreign secretary level talks in August 2015 expressing displeasure at Pakistan inviting Kashmiri separatists for consultations ahead of the  resumption of dialogue.

*Modi-Sharif finalized Ufa joint statement for resumption of dialogue in July 2015. Ufa was hailed as big diplomatic victory by India but Sharif was denounced at home for give away.

*Modi surprised all by landing at Lahore to attend Sharif’s family function at his home in Raiwind in December 2015.

*Modi’s friend Sharif despite ups and downs

*Modi gifted Sharif with a shawl for his mother and Pakistani prime minister reciprocated by sending a saree for his counterpart’s mother.

*In July 2015, Sharif sends mangoes to Modi on Eid.

*Modi attended Sharif family function in Raiwind in December 2015.

*The two leaders continued to remain in touch on phone. Modi dialed Sharif before his open heart surgery in 2016.

*Sharif and Modi met again at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting held in Astana in June 2017 despite the twin terror attacks in Pathankot and Gurdaspur

The major downturns

*Attack on Indian Air Force base in Pathankot in January 2016 changed the dynamics of India-Pakistan relations.

*India allows Pakistan's Joint Investigation Team, comprising an ISI officer, to visit Pathankot in March 2016 to probe the terror attack. New Delhi gave permission despite no response from Islamabad for a similar trip by Indian investigators to Pakistan.

*Union home minister Rajnath Singh cut shorts his visit to Pakistan in August 2016 to attend a SAARC conference. Rajnath Singh later tells Parliament he did that keeping in mind the country's image as he was given a shoddy treatment.

*Pathankot attack was followed by strike on several Indian military installations. The one in Uri in September 2016 killing around 20 Indian soldiers proved to be the turning point.

*India avenged Uri with a surgical strike across LoC in September 2016.

The Kulbhushan episode

*Pakistan claimed in March 2016 that it has apprehended an Indian spy in Balochistan and identifies him as ex-naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav.

*India rubbished the claim saying he was picked up from Iran and not Balochistan

and debunked the spy theory claiming he was a businessman.

*In April 2017, a military court sentenced Jadhav to death leading to strong reactions in India.

*India moves International Court of Justice (ICJ) in May 2017 against denial of consular access to Jadhav. ICJ stays Jadhav's execution.

*Jadhav's mother and wife allowed to meet him in Jail in December 2017 but protests humiliation of the family as they are frisked.

The Doval hand

*Reports suggested that National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Lt General Nasir Khan Janjua (retd.) had been meeting all this while. Three of these meetings are said to have taken place at a neutral venue in Bangkok, one of them being in December 2017. The two had met in Russia at the sidelines of another international even before that.

The politics over Modi-Sharif friendship India

*Prime Minister Modi was ridiculed by the opposition for showing unusual bonhomie with Sharif. He was criticised for landing in Lahore ininvited and without informing anyone.  The under-cover meeting of NSAs of the two countries was seen as a major give away by the tough sounding Modi government.

Pakistan

*Sharif's proximity with Modi was seen with suspicion by opponents.  "Jo Modi ka yaar hai, wo gadaar hai (the one who is Modi's friend is a traitor), became a popular election slogan for Imran Khan's party. Sharif was accused of having business ties with India. Sharif hosting Indian businessman Sajjan Jindal in May 2017 became a huge talking point. Jindal was seen as Modi's emissary and Sharif was accused of promoting family business instead of safeguarding national interests.

The Imran Khan factor

*The recently concluded elections has led to a regime change in Pakistan. Imran Khan, leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf will be the new Prime Minister on August 11 when he will take oath of office.
*Imran Khan has begun by extended hand of friendship to Modi. He said Pakistan was willing to take two steps for India's one but singled out Kashmir as the core issue and talked about human rights violations in the valley.

*Prime Minister Modi spoke to Imran Khan on phone and congratulated him for becoming Prime Minister

*Imran Khan will release 30 Indian fishermen as goodwill gesture on eve of oath taking.

The concerns

*New Delhi feels Imran Khan will be a proxy of the military establishment. Pakistan watchers see army's hand in winning the elections. He won't get free hand

The road ahead

*Similarities between Modi and Khan

*Both known for personal financial integrity

*Both immensely popular among the youth promising riddance from corruption. The young population is detached from the partition scars.

*Both came riding on mandates for change

*Both self made in politics, came to power challenging dynasties

*Both known as men of their own mind

*Both prisoners of their images

The problem areas

*Khan has a hidden hand of army behind him. Fear that he might turn out to be GHQ's  'yes' man on foreign policy

*Big question mark if he will be able to reign in jihadis in Kashmir

*Soft on Taliban, favours talks

*Imran about Kashmir being core issue, raises issue of human rights violations

*While Imran is starting his innings, Modi has played his and will seek re-election in less then a year

*Modi will be not be able to walk an extra mile with Pakistan given the political sensitivities.

*Modi has already burnt fingers with Sharif

*India to remain firm on terror and talks can not go together stance

*Imran Khan appears too feeble on bringing anti-terrorist sentiment in Pakistani establishment

*India will test Imran on Mumbai attack master mind Hafeez Saeed roaming freely and even participation in election campaign and Dawood Ibrahim

*Religious fundamentalism prevailing on both sides of border though conservative Islamic  alliance (Muttahida Majlis- Amal) MMA loses in Pakistan election