Fed’s Bullard says it’s wrong to think the U.S. is due for a recession

An economic recession doesn’t necessarily have to hit the U.S. in the next two or three years, said St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Monday.

The central banker made the following comment to CNBC when asked whether a downturn could come in 2019, 2020 or 2021:

‘The idea that you’re inevitably going to have a recession just because you’ve had an expansion for a while is not really right. Australia is a country, for example, that has not had a recession in a long time — 25 years or more.’

The Australian economy is in its 27th year of recession-free growth.

Bullard’s upbeat view goes somewhat against the grain. A recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal found that a majority of them believe the American economic expansion that began in mid-2009 will end in 2020.

The expansion’s largely weak pace suggests it has room to run, according to the St. Louis Fed boss.

“The growth rate has been very slow since the financial crisis. It’s picked up some recently, but it’s, generally speaking, been very slow,” he told CNBC.

“So maybe you have more blue sky ahead than what people think.”

U.S. stock futures ESU8, +0.09% were showing little change early Monday, after the S&P 500 SPX, +0.46%  on Friday rose 0.5% and notched its fifth weekly advance in a row. The equity index is up 6.2% in the year to date, stretching its gain since March 2009 to 320%.

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