The prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of a normal and well-distributed rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season (August-September), almost similar to that in the first half, seems to have largely quelled the disquiet caused by other weather watchers by projecting sub-par monsoon rainfall this year. The markets have, predictably, reacted positively to the optimistic monsoon outlook.
But the past accuracy record of the IMD’s long-range monsoon forecasts, issued normally in April every year, does not inspire much confidence. In the last 17 years since ...
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